Monday, July 25, 2011

7/26 Almanac

On Tuesday, July 26: Consumer confidence, new home sales.

There are 25 trading days before the August options expire, 53 the September, 88 the October and 116 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.6% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.0.% in a net move up of 0.4%.

The day's extremes: Open $133.30, high $134.49, low $133.16, close $133.83.

SPY closed below the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $133.50-$134.83.

In total, 2.4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 3% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.18%, five basis points higher than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

The Commerce Board reports on new home sales and the government on consumer confidence at 10 a.m. Eastern. Both can be major market movers, although with the debt crisis sucking all the air out of the room, maybe not this time.

Also out, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, which breaks down results for 20 metro areas, at 9 a.m., the State Street investor confidence index at 10 a.m. (pretty low--my bet), and two weekly retail reports: ICSC-Goldman at 7:45 a.m. and Redbook at 8:55 a.m.

Treasury auctions 4- and 52-week bills at 11:30 a.m., and 2-year notes at 1 p.m.

Kansas City Fed Pres. Tom Hoenig testifies before a House subcommittee at 2 p.m. on monetary policy and the economy. So why Hoenig? He no longer has a vote or a voice in the committee that sets money policy, but during his term, which expired last year, he gained a reputation as an inflation hawk who often dissented from the majority.

Having come up through the Fed system, he took office under the first President Bush, which gives him far more institutional memory than most Fedsters. Whatever happens, odds are Tom Hoenig has seen it before.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade August vertical, diagonal, calendar and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as November or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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