7/12 Forex

Twenty-four breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow, three with a strong trends.

The yen is on the rise, prompting a number of breakouts to the downside (since JPY is always the counter).

Strong-Trend Breakouts

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
CHF/CZK		25	jul12	Kč20.693	Kč20.363	0.330	1.6%
GBP/CHF+		33	jul12	SF1.3253	SF1.3414	0.0161	1.2%
NOK/SEK+		29	jul12	Skr1.1881	Skr1.1780	0.0101	0.9%

Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

Weak-Trend Breakouts

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
AUD/JPY+		20	jul12	¥84.035	¥85.042	1.007	1.2%
CAD/JPY+		14	jul12	¥81.215	¥82.235	1.020	1.3%
CZK/JPY		16	jul12	¥4.6315	¥4.6972	0.0657	1.4%
DKK/PLN		22	jul12	zł0.5385	zł0.5342	0.0043	0.8%
DKK/THB		20	jul12	฿5.679	฿5.691	0.065	1.1%
EUR/HKD		17	jul12	HK$10.8621	HK$10.9885	0.1264	1.2%
EUR/PLN		20	jul12	zł4.0176	zł4.0502	0.0326	0.8%
EUR/THB		20	jul11	฿42.36	฿42.84	0.48	1.1%
EUR/USD+		17	jul12	US$1.3969	US$1.4135	0.0166	1.2%
GBP/PLN		15	jul12	zł4.6285	zł4.5673	0.0612	1.3%
GBP/SEK+		17	jul12	Skr10.5630	Skr10.4215	0.1415	1.3%
HKD/JPY		15	jul12	¥10.2317	¥10.2306	0.0827	0.8%
MXN/JPY		18	jul12	¥6.687	¥6.774	0.087	1.3%
NOK/JPY+		17	jul12	¥14.338	¥14.574	0.236	1.7%
PLN/CZK		16	jul12	Kč6.0275	Kč6.0760	0.0485	0.8%
SGD/JPY		15	jul12	¥64.409	¥64.997	0.588	0.9%
USD/DKK+		17	jul12	Dkr5.3368	Dkr502760	0.0608	1.1%
USD/HUF		18	jul12	Ft193.59	Ft190.24	3.35	1.7%
USD/JPY+		13	jul12	¥79.558	¥80.001	0.634	0.8%
USD/NOK+		15	jul12	Nkr5.6289	Nkr5.5535	0.0754	1.3%
USD/TRY		23	jul11	TL1.6466	TL1.6296	0.0170	1.0%

Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

In addition, AUD/NOK is clsoe to a breakout on the bull side. Three pairs broke out but with declining average directional index readings: CHF/TRY, CHF/ZAR and THB/JPY.


Key

• phase: Green for a bull-phase breakout, red for a bear phase.
• adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
• bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
• blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
• bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
• atr: The 14-day average true range, in the same currency as the price.
• atr%: The average true range as a percentage of the breakout level, an indicator of volatility that is comparable for all potential trades.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.


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