On Wednesday, June 1: Manufacturing index.
There are 17 trading days before the June options expire, 45 the July, 80 the August and 108 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
5/31 Top Prospects
One breakout beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).
QCOM is within 1¢ of breaking out to the bullside. If it does break out today, the analysis will look like this:
When considering bull trades, I like the financials for both SLM and QCOM.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLM* | may31 | $16.86 | $16.46 | 0.40 | 2.4% |
QCOM is within 1¢ of breaking out to the bullside. If it does break out today, the analysis will look like this:
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM* | may31 | $58.46 | $57.33 | 1.13 | 1.9% |
When considering bull trades, I like the financials for both SLM and QCOM.
5/31 Indicators
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 parabolic sar signals turns bullish after weeks on the bear side (SPY, QQQ).
Crude oil’s parabolic sar turns bullish, but the strength of the trend (adx) drops below 30 (US0).
Dollar turns bearish on the macd in trading against a basket of other currencies (UUP).
Emerging markets also turn bullish on the macd (EEM).
Stocks
Crude oil’s parabolic sar turns bullish, but the strength of the trend (adx) drops below 30 (US0).
Dollar turns bearish on the macd in trading against a basket of other currencies (UUP).
Emerging markets also turn bullish on the macd (EEM).
Stocks
Bonds
Tangibles
Global
|
5/31 Forex
Two new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow. AUD and CHF have declined sharply, suggesting they are no longer the flavors of the month.
GBP/THB’s bull breakout runs counter to the pair’s short carry bias of more than 200 basis points.
NZD/JPY is aligned with a long carry bias exceeding 250 basis points.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/THB | may31 | ฿49.96 | ฿49.60 | 0.36 | 0.7% | ||
| NZD/JPY* | may31 | ¥66.700 | ¥65.717 | 0.983 | 1.5% |
GBP/THB’s bull breakout runs counter to the pair’s short carry bias of more than 200 basis points.
NZD/JPY is aligned with a long carry bias exceeding 250 basis points.
Monday, May 30, 2011
5/30 Forex
There are no new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow. New York and London are closed for holidays.
Monday's Schedule
U.S. markets are closed today for Memorial Day, and U.K. markets, for the Spring Bank Holiday.
I won't file Indicators or Top Prospects today.
Although New York and London are closed, other money centers are trading, and I shall file results of my scan of currencies shortly.
I won't file Indicators or Top Prospects today.
Although New York and London are closed, other money centers are trading, and I shall file results of my scan of currencies shortly.
Friday, May 27, 2011
Monday's Schedule
Monday, May 30, is a holiday in the United States and the United Kingdom. Banks and markets in New York, Chicago and London will be closed.
However, other money centers will be open, currencies will trade, and I'll post my daily Forex analysis Monday at the usual time (around 9:30 or 10 a.m. Eastern).
Indicators, Top Prospects and the Almanac won't be filed on Monday.
However, other money centers will be open, currencies will trade, and I'll post my daily Forex analysis Monday at the usual time (around 9:30 or 10 a.m. Eastern).
Indicators, Top Prospects and the Almanac won't be filed on Monday.
5/31 Almanac
On Monday, May 30: U.S. markets will be closed for the Memorial Day holiday.
On Tuesday, May 31: Consumer confidence.
There are 18 trading days before the June options expire, 46 the July, 81 the August and 109 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
On Tuesday, May 31: Consumer confidence.
There are 18 trading days before the June options expire, 46 the July, 81 the August and 109 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
5/27 Top Prospects
Two breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).
SLM is within 1¢ of breaking out to the bullside but with a declining average directional index (adx). So, under my rules, a breakout would be disallowed for trading. The current breakout level is $16.86.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFL | may27 | $48.00 | $49.27 | 1.27 | 2.7% | ||
| NTAP | may26 | $55.18 | $53.67 | 1.51 | 2.7% |
SLM is within 1¢ of breaking out to the bullside but with a declining average directional index (adx). So, under my rules, a breakout would be disallowed for trading. The current breakout level is $16.86.
5/27 Indicators
Volatility on the S&P 500 (the VIX, or the fear index) turned bearish on both the parabolic sar and the macd. The price channel phase has been neutral since May 5. A falling VIX usually coincides or proceeds rising stocks.
Emerging markets (EEM) turned bullish on the parabolic sar. the price channel phase is neutral.
Stocks
Emerging markets (EEM) turned bullish on the parabolic sar. the price channel phase is neutral.
Stocks
Bonds
Tangibles
Global
|
Today's Closes
The U.S. bond markets will close at 2 p.m. Eastern. The stock markets will continue trading until the normal closing time, 4 p.m. Eastern (plus the after-hours session). Forex, of course, like the tide, stops for no holiday.
5/27 Forex
Eight new breakouts (and re-breakouts after sharp pullbacks) among the 124 currency pairs I follow.
AUD/CAD, CHF/SGD are re-breakouts after large pullbacks amid ongoing bull phases, and GBP/CHF, USD/CHF amid bear phases.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD* | may27 | C$1.0443 | C$1.0355 | 0.0088 | 0.8% | ||
| CHF/JPY | may27 | ¥94.315 | ¥93.180 | 1.135 | 1.2% | ||
| CHF/HUF | may26 | Ft220.63 | Ft217.24 | 3.39 | 1.5% | ||
| CHF/SGD | may27 | S$1.4406 | S$1.4259 | 0.0147 | 1.0% | ||
| GBP/CAD | may27 | C$1.6081 | C$1.5954 | 0.0127 | 0.8% | ||
| GBP/CHF | may27 | SFr1.4109 | SFr1.4253 | 0.0144 | 1.0% | ||
| NZD/USD | may27 | US$0.8120 | US$0.8010 | 0.0110 | 1.4% | ||
| USD/CHF | may27 | SFr0.8552 | SFr0.8657 | 0.0105 | 1.2% |
AUD/CAD, CHF/SGD are re-breakouts after large pullbacks amid ongoing bull phases, and GBP/CHF, USD/CHF amid bear phases.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Top Prospects -- Why no breakouts?
A reader has expressed incredulity over my not finding any breakouts in my stock scan today. "Look at thus-and-so," he writes.
It's a reasonable question. There are a lot of stocks out there, and even this close to a holiday, it seems incredible that none were on the move.
Yet, I stand by my claim in Thursday's Top Prospects: "... there are no breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened."
Any trader faces an embarrassment of riches: There are always more potential trades than there is money to pay for them. The trader has to pick and choose.
In setting up my trading methods, I've tried to find ways of choosing that also contribute to giving me an edge. I don't know the future. No trader does. So anything that gives me some slight advantage is worth seeking out.
The first element in my toolkit for selecting trades is the universe of stocks that I look at. It's possible to find platforms that will search through every stock traded and give you a list of 50 possible trades.
That's not my style. I limit my stock scan to issues that are on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange penny-increment list.
It used to be that options prices moved in increments of a nickel or dime. The CBOE penny-increment program sought to reduce the granularity to as little as a cent. So a spread can be $2.96 bid vs. $2.98 ask rather than $2.95 vs. $3.00.
This finer granularity to the pricing can give me an edge in options of a few cents per share. Multiply that by 100 shares per options contract and who knows how many trades a year, and it adds up.
Moreover, stocks on the penny-increment list tend to be very liquid. Generally, the higher the liquidity, the narrower the spreads, and the greater my edge, because I'm not paying as much for the privilege of opening a position.
In addition, I also screen a selection of exchange-traded funds focused mainly on markets outside the United States and on commodities. They often lack liquidity, but they make up for that by adding diversification to the mix. The more markets I'm trading, the less likely I am to have all of my positions hit by a contrary move.
Moreover, I limit my scan to stocks priced at $5 or more, since these are less prone than cheaper stocks to market manipulation.
And I scan stocks with volume equal to that of NKE or greater -- generally north of 2 million shares a day. The higher the volume, the smaller the spreads and the smoother the fluctuations, generally (although not always).
Put it all in the mix, and I've narrowed my trading universe to about 300 stocks plus change.
I also select based on a specific set of technical analysis rules. When I say "breakout", I don't mean "looking good" or "on the rise" or "might make some money".
To be a breakout in my analysis, a stock's price must move beyond the 55-day price channel. There are also other rules that further limit which breakouts get a place on my Top Prospects list.
See "How I Trade" for a complete explanation of my trading rules.
On a normal day, when the market is trending sideways, I'll usually end up with fewer than half a dozen breakouts. When the market is trending broadly, it can be as many as a dozen or so.
All in all, it's a very small harvest from the immense pool of stocks that are traded on the U.S. exchanges. And that's exactly how I want it.
The biggest problem faced by any trader is span of control. I can only manage a limited number of positions. If the number grows too large, then I find myself spending more time on portfolio management than on analyzing potential trades.
So when it comes to the number of stocks that make my Top Prospects list, small is beautiful. And on a day like today, when the markets were quiet, and perhaps even comatose, the fact that I found no breakouts that met my criteria shows that my system is working.
It's a reasonable question. There are a lot of stocks out there, and even this close to a holiday, it seems incredible that none were on the move.
Yet, I stand by my claim in Thursday's Top Prospects: "... there are no breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened."
Any trader faces an embarrassment of riches: There are always more potential trades than there is money to pay for them. The trader has to pick and choose.
In setting up my trading methods, I've tried to find ways of choosing that also contribute to giving me an edge. I don't know the future. No trader does. So anything that gives me some slight advantage is worth seeking out.
The first element in my toolkit for selecting trades is the universe of stocks that I look at. It's possible to find platforms that will search through every stock traded and give you a list of 50 possible trades.
That's not my style. I limit my stock scan to issues that are on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange penny-increment list.
It used to be that options prices moved in increments of a nickel or dime. The CBOE penny-increment program sought to reduce the granularity to as little as a cent. So a spread can be $2.96 bid vs. $2.98 ask rather than $2.95 vs. $3.00.
This finer granularity to the pricing can give me an edge in options of a few cents per share. Multiply that by 100 shares per options contract and who knows how many trades a year, and it adds up.
Moreover, stocks on the penny-increment list tend to be very liquid. Generally, the higher the liquidity, the narrower the spreads, and the greater my edge, because I'm not paying as much for the privilege of opening a position.
In addition, I also screen a selection of exchange-traded funds focused mainly on markets outside the United States and on commodities. They often lack liquidity, but they make up for that by adding diversification to the mix. The more markets I'm trading, the less likely I am to have all of my positions hit by a contrary move.
Moreover, I limit my scan to stocks priced at $5 or more, since these are less prone than cheaper stocks to market manipulation.
And I scan stocks with volume equal to that of NKE or greater -- generally north of 2 million shares a day. The higher the volume, the smaller the spreads and the smoother the fluctuations, generally (although not always).
Put it all in the mix, and I've narrowed my trading universe to about 300 stocks plus change.
I also select based on a specific set of technical analysis rules. When I say "breakout", I don't mean "looking good" or "on the rise" or "might make some money".
To be a breakout in my analysis, a stock's price must move beyond the 55-day price channel. There are also other rules that further limit which breakouts get a place on my Top Prospects list.
See "How I Trade" for a complete explanation of my trading rules.
On a normal day, when the market is trending sideways, I'll usually end up with fewer than half a dozen breakouts. When the market is trending broadly, it can be as many as a dozen or so.
All in all, it's a very small harvest from the immense pool of stocks that are traded on the U.S. exchanges. And that's exactly how I want it.
The biggest problem faced by any trader is span of control. I can only manage a limited number of positions. If the number grows too large, then I find myself spending more time on portfolio management than on analyzing potential trades.
So when it comes to the number of stocks that make my Top Prospects list, small is beautiful. And on a day like today, when the markets were quiet, and perhaps even comatose, the fact that I found no breakouts that met my criteria shows that my system is working.
5/27 Almanac
On Friday, May 27: Income and outlays, pending home sales.
There are 22 trading days before the June options expire, 50 the July, 85 the August and 113 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 22 trading days before the June options expire, 50 the July, 85 the August and 113 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
5/26 Top Prospects
With the long Memorial Day weekend coming up in the United States, there are no breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.
5/26 Indicators
The macd on crude oil (USO) have turned bullish.
The parabolic sar for the U.S. dollar, in trading against a basket of other currencies, has turned bearish.
Stocks
The parabolic sar for the U.S. dollar, in trading against a basket of other currencies, has turned bearish.
Stocks
Bonds
Tangibles
Global
|
5/26 Forex
Three new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow.
The CAD/CHF breakout comes after an extensive pullback within a price channel bear phase that began on May 4.
NZD/USD is within a few pips of a breakout. The pair has a long carry bias of 270 basis points. If it should break out today, here’s what the analysis would look like:
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/CHF | may26 | SFr0.8871 | SFr0.8978 | 0.0107 | 1.2% | ||
| GBP/CZK | may25 | Kč28.485 | Kč28.147 | 0.338 | 1.2% | ||
| NZD/HKD | may26 | HK$6.3039 | HK$6.2220 | 0.0819 | 1.3% |
The CAD/CHF breakout comes after an extensive pullback within a price channel bear phase that began on May 4.
NZD/USD is within a few pips of a breakout. The pair has a long carry bias of 270 basis points. If it should break out today, here’s what the analysis would look like:
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | may26 | US$0.8120 | US$0.8015 | 0.0105 | 1.3% |
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
5/26 Almanac
On Thursday, May 26: GDP, jobless claims.
There are 23 trading days before the June options expire, 51 the July, 86 the August and 114 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 23 trading days before the June options expire, 51 the July, 86 the August and 114 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
Trading Rules Change
A small change to my trading rules.
It is not uncommon for a price to move beyond the price channel (a breakout) but then to return to within the price channel during trading on the breakout day.
This change requires entry at a price beyond the breakout level. If the price has retreated to within the price channel, then I enter my order as a conditional trade, at one cent (or one pip in the case of forex) beyond the channel boundary.
The new language is in the list of conditions for bull and bear entry. The final conditions read like this, with the new language underlined:
Bull: "If yes, then open a bull position at a price above the breakout level.
Bear: "If yes, then open a bear position at a price below the breakout level.
An example from today's Top Prospects is JNPR.
My trading rules are set out in "How I Trade", which is available on the menu bar.
It is not uncommon for a price to move beyond the price channel (a breakout) but then to return to within the price channel during trading on the breakout day.
This change requires entry at a price beyond the breakout level. If the price has retreated to within the price channel, then I enter my order as a conditional trade, at one cent (or one pip in the case of forex) beyond the channel boundary.
The new language is in the list of conditions for bull and bear entry. The final conditions read like this, with the new language underlined:
Bull: "If yes, then open a bull position at a price above the breakout level.
Bear: "If yes, then open a bear position at a price below the breakout level.
An example from today's Top Prospects is JNPR.
My trading rules are set out in "How I Trade", which is available on the menu bar.
5/25 Top Prospects
Three breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened. A small harvest after all of the scheduling drama.
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).
NFLX is a second breakout following a severe pullback within a bull phase that began April 21.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DD | may25 | $51.10 | $52.35 | 1.25 | 2.5% | ||
| JNPR | may24 | $36.48 | $37.61 | 1.13 | 3.1% | ||
| NFLX | may25 | $254.98 | $248.01 | 6.97 | 2.7% |
NFLX is a second breakout following a severe pullback within a bull phase that began April 21.
5/25 Forex, update
This morning I listed EUR/CZK in my Forex report as within a pip of breaking out. The pair has broken above the 55-day price channel, quite strongly, moving into bull phase.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/CZK | may25 | Kč24.571 | Kč24.461 | 0.110 | 0.5% |
Wednesday's Schedule, update
My jury pool was dismissed early as, in an uncharacteristic outburst of civility and friendliness, most of the cases on the docket were settled before juries were empaneled. Perhaps Portland, Oregon well deserves its reputation as one of the most laid back cities in the United States.
So, I'm revising my previous filing plans.
I shall do a scan of stocks and file Top Prospects today.
And the Almanac will be posted, as usual, right after the U.S. market close.
So, I'm revising my previous filing plans.
I shall do a scan of stocks and file Top Prospects today.
And the Almanac will be posted, as usual, right after the U.S. market close.
5/25 Indicators
5/25 Forex
Three new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow.
The CHF/SEK, CHF/ZAR and GBP/TRY breakouts are contrary the carry bias.
EUR/CZK is within a pip of a bull breakout. If it were to break out today, here’s what the analysis would look like:
The EUR/CZK breakout is aligned with the carry bias, but the spread is a miniscule 21 basis points.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHF/SEK | may25 | Skr7.2528 | Skr7.1675 | 0.0853 | 1.2% | ||
| CHF/ZAR | may25 | R8.0593 | R7.9417 | 0.1176 | 1.5% | ||
| GBP/TRY | may25 | TL2.6063 | TL2.5813 | 0.0290 | 1.1% |
The CHF/SEK, CHF/ZAR and GBP/TRY breakouts are contrary the carry bias.
EUR/CZK is within a pip of a bull breakout. If it were to break out today, here’s what the analysis would look like:
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/CZK | may25 | Kč24.571 | Kč24.461 | 0.110 | 0.5% |
The EUR/CZK breakout is aligned with the carry bias, but the spread is a miniscule 21 basis points.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
5/25 Almanac
On Wednesday, May 25: Durable goods.
There are 24 trading days before the June options expire, 52 the July, 87 the August and 115 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 24 trading days before the June options expire, 52 the July, 87 the August and 115 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
Wednesday's Schedule
I have jury duty on Wednesday and shall spend the day cloistered in the depths of the Multnomah County Courthouse in Portland, Oregon, out of contact with the markets for a day.
It's tough for a dedicated trader, but I shall man up and endure this enforced estrangement from the market flow. I hope the withdrawal symptoms aren't too bad.
For my posting schedule, it means this: I'll post the Indicators and the Forex scan, although they might be earlier than usual by about 15 minutes or so.
I won't do a stock scan, so Top Prospects will not be posted. Thursday's scan (assuming I don't get a multi-day trial) will cover Wednesday's breakouts as well as the current day's.
I shall post the Almanac, but it will be hours late.
Wish me luck (i.e., short trials).
It's tough for a dedicated trader, but I shall man up and endure this enforced estrangement from the market flow. I hope the withdrawal symptoms aren't too bad.
For my posting schedule, it means this: I'll post the Indicators and the Forex scan, although they might be earlier than usual by about 15 minutes or so.
I won't do a stock scan, so Top Prospects will not be posted. Thursday's scan (assuming I don't get a multi-day trial) will cover Wednesday's breakouts as well as the current day's.
I shall post the Almanac, but it will be hours late.
Wish me luck (i.e., short trials).
5/24 Top Prospects
Three breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).
The EP breakout follows a pullback within a price channel bull phase that began on April 15.
PNC is within 2¢ of a breakout below the 55-day price channel.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EP | may24 | $19.67 | $19.27 | 0.68 | 3.5% | ||
| KRE | may24 | $25.30 | $25.69 | 0.39 | 1.5% | ||
| XRX | may24 | $9.78 | $10.01 | 0.23 | 2.4% |
The EP breakout follows a pullback within a price channel bull phase that began on April 15.
PNC is within 2¢ of a breakout below the 55-day price channel.
5/24 Forex
5/24 Indicators
The parabolic sar has turned bullish on the fear index (VIX), which has been in price-channel neutral phase since May 5.
The macd on Treasury long-term debt (TLT) has fallen below the zero-line, turning bearish. The indicator has been in price-channel bull phase since May 5.
Gold’s (GLD) parabolic sar has turned bullish and is again aligned with the price-channel bull phase that began March 1.
Stocks
The macd on Treasury long-term debt (TLT) has fallen below the zero-line, turning bearish. The indicator has been in price-channel bull phase since May 5.
Gold’s (GLD) parabolic sar has turned bullish and is again aligned with the price-channel bull phase that began March 1.
Stocks
Bonds
Tangibles
Global
|
Monday, May 23, 2011
5/24 Almanac
On Tuesday, May 24: New home sales.
There are 25 trading days before the June options expire, 53 the July, 88 the August and 116 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 25 trading days before the June options expire, 53 the July, 88 the August and 116 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
5/23 Top Prospects
Six new breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | may23 | $145.25 | $139.20 | 6.05 | 4.2% | ||
| CMA | may23 | $36.18 | $36.73 | 0.55 | 1.5% | ||
| DE* | may23 | $84.27 | $85.93 | 2.46 | 2.9% | ||
| EPI+ | may23 | $22.64 | $22.96 | 0.37 | 1.6% | ||
| MU | may23 | $9.65 | $10.08 | 0.43 | 4.5% | ||
| PSTL+ | may23 | $21.74 | $21.88 | 0.32 | 1.5% |
5/23 Forex
Eight new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow.
The carry bias and direction of trade are aligned for EUR/MXN, divergent for the others.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHF/CZK | may20 | Kč19.733 | Kč19.499 | 0.234 | 1.2% | ||
| CHF/DKK | may20 | Dkr6.0101 | Dkr5.9503 | 0.0598 | 1.0% | ||
| DKK/SGD | may23 | S$0.2346 | S$0.2320 | 0.0026 | 1.1% | ||
| EUF/CHF | may23 | SFr1.2403 | SFr1.2276 | 0.0127 | 1.0% | ||
| EUR/MXN | may20 | Mex$16.474 | Mex$16.656 | 0.183 | 1.1% | ||
| EUR/SGD | may20 | S$1.7501 | S$1.7696 | 0.0195 | 1.1% | ||
| NZD/PLN | may23 | Zł2.2183 | Zł2.1789 | 0.0334 | 1.5% | ||
| USD/TRY | may23 | TL1.6056 | TL1.5872 | 0.0184 | 1.2% |
The carry bias and direction of trade are aligned for EUR/MXN, divergent for the others.
5/23 Indicators
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Trading Rules: Changes
I've done an extensive reworking of my trading rules to better reflect how I'm operating in practice.
The underlying rules are pretty much unaltered. There are change in terminology to try to differentiate between concepts.
The biggest change is that I have divided exits into those triggered by a price-channel phase change, and those triggered by other factors (the oscillators). As part of that, I've added re-entry rules to each exit.
Here's the link: www.timbovee.com/p/readers-guide.html. And the guide is always available from the menu bar under "How I Trade".
The underlying rules are pretty much unaltered. There are change in terminology to try to differentiate between concepts.
The biggest change is that I have divided exits into those triggered by a price-channel phase change, and those triggered by other factors (the oscillators). As part of that, I've added re-entry rules to each exit.
Here's the link: www.timbovee.com/p/readers-guide.html. And the guide is always available from the menu bar under "How I Trade".
Friday, May 20, 2011
5/23 Almanac
On Monday, May 23: A bit of fluffery from the Chicagoland Fed.
There are 26 trading days before the June options expire, 54 the July, 89 the August and 117 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 26 trading days before the June options expire, 54 the July, 89 the August and 117 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
5/20 Top Prospects
Five breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).
The BRCD breakout came on a 6%+ rise after the company announced earnings that were twice the estimates.
CHIM tracks the China materials sector.
DAL today came within 4¢ of breaking out to the bull side. The breakout level is $11.64.
DE has touched the lower price channel boundary without breaking through. The level is $84.27.
GME shows a bullside breakout after an earnings surprise, but a declining average directional index (adx) negates the phase change.
The S breakout comes amid an ongoing bull phase that has lated since March 8. I note it in the analysis because of its strength.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRCD | may20 | $6.49 | $6.31 | 0.18 | 2.8% | ||
| CHIM+ | may20 | $13.41 | $13.63 | 0.22 | 1.6% | ||
| COF | may19 | $55.64 | $54.49 | 1.15 | 3.1% | ||
| MT | may20 | $32.42 | $33.47 | 1.05 | 3.2% | ||
| S* | may20 | $5.37 | $5.20 | 0.17 | 3.2% |
The BRCD breakout came on a 6%+ rise after the company announced earnings that were twice the estimates.
CHIM tracks the China materials sector.
DAL today came within 4¢ of breaking out to the bull side. The breakout level is $11.64.
DE has touched the lower price channel boundary without breaking through. The level is $84.27.
GME shows a bullside breakout after an earnings surprise, but a declining average directional index (adx) negates the phase change.
The S breakout comes amid an ongoing bull phase that has lated since March 8. I note it in the analysis because of its strength.
5/20 Indicators
The fear index (VIX) turned bearish on the macd. The indicator has been in price-channel neutral phase since May 6. The VIX tracks the volatility of the S&P 500, and a bearish VIX is considered to be bullish for stocks.
Stocks
Stocks
Bonds
Tangibles
Global
|
Thursday, May 19, 2011
5/20 Almanac
On Friday, May 20: No econ events.
This is the last trading day for May options. There are 29 trading days before June options expire, 57 the July, 92 the August and 120 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
This is the last trading day for May options. There are 29 trading days before June options expire, 57 the July, 92 the August and 120 the September.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
5/19 Top Prospects
Five breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).
VRSN broke above the 55-day price channel but with a declining average direction index (adx), which invalidates the phase change.
YUM saw its adx turn up after breaking out Wednesday with an adx decline. The price remains above the breakout level, and so the breakout is now validated.
VNM is one of the Next 11 emerging markets.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LCC | may19 | $10.10 | $9.65 | 0.45 | 4.5% | ||
| MBI | may19 | $8.88 | $9.27 | 0.39 | 4.4% | ||
| MGM | may19 | $15.15 | $14.58 | 3.7 | 3.8% | ||
| YUM | may18 | $55.39 | $54.51 | 0.88 | 1.6% | ||
| VNM+ | may19 | $22.42 | $22.91 | 0.49 | 2.2% |
VRSN broke above the 55-day price channel but with a declining average direction index (adx), which invalidates the phase change.
YUM saw its adx turn up after breaking out Wednesday with an adx decline. The price remains above the breakout level, and so the breakout is now validated.
VNM is one of the Next 11 emerging markets.
5/19 Forex
One new breakout among the 124 currency pairs I follow.
The GBP/NZD carry balance is short by more than 200 basis points, making this a position I would willingly hold for my own account.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/NZD* | may19 | NZ$2.0365 | NZ$2.0612 | 0.0247 | 1.2% |
The GBP/NZD carry balance is short by more than 200 basis points, making this a position I would willingly hold for my own account.
5/19 Indicators
The S&P 500 volatility index (the VIX, also called the fear index) has turned bearish on the parabolic sar after 10 day son the bull side. The indicator has been in neutral phase since May 5.
The average directional index (adx) on Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) dropped below 20 as its trend weakens.
Stocks
The average directional index (adx) on Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) dropped below 20 as its trend weakens.
Stocks
Bonds
Tangibles
Global
|
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
5/19 Almanac
On Thursday, May 19: Jobless claims, existing homes.
There are two days before May options expire, 30 the June, 58 the July and 93 the August.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are two days before May options expire, 30 the June, 58 the July and 93 the August.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
5/18 Top Prospects
Three breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).
DELL broke above the price channel on an earnings announcement gap. I’ve listed it, but it doesn’t count as a new breakout, since the stock went into bull phase on Feb. 16 and despite a severe retreat, has remained in bull phase ever since.
YUM broke above the price channel, but with a slightly declining average directional index (adx), invalidating the phase change.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | may18 | $16.80 | $16.30 | 0.50 | 3.0% | ||
| HPQ | may17 | $37.60 | $38.55 | 0.95 | 2.5% | ||
| KBH | may17 | $10.94 | $11.31 | 0.37 | 3.4% |
DELL broke above the price channel on an earnings announcement gap. I’ve listed it, but it doesn’t count as a new breakout, since the stock went into bull phase on Feb. 16 and despite a severe retreat, has remained in bull phase ever since.
YUM broke above the price channel, but with a slightly declining average directional index (adx), invalidating the phase change.
5/18 Forex
Two new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow. A third, PLN/HUF, is close to a breakout.
CHF/NOK has a significant carry-trade bias to the short side.
GBP/SGD has a small carry bias to the long side.
PLN/HUF is within 0.015 forints of breaking above the price channel. The breakout level is Ft68.685. The carry bias is to the short side, to the tune of about 180 basis points.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHF/NOK | may17 | Nkr6.349 | Nkr6.265 | 0.084 | 1.3% | ||
| GBP/SGD | may18 | S$2.0096 | S$2.0239 | % |
CHF/NOK has a significant carry-trade bias to the short side.
GBP/SGD has a small carry bias to the long side.
PLN/HUF is within 0.015 forints of breaking above the price channel. The breakout level is Ft68.685. The carry bias is to the short side, to the tune of about 180 basis points.
5/18 Indicators
Corporate high-yield debt (JNK) is again fully aligned in bull phase, 11 days after the parabolic sar turned bearish. The current bull phase began on April 27.
Gold (GLD) continues to weaken in a bull phase that began March 1, with the average directional index (adx) falling below 20.
Stocks
Gold (GLD) continues to weaken in a bull phase that began March 1, with the average directional index (adx) falling below 20.
Stocks
Bonds
Tangibles
Global
|
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
5/17 Forex Update
CHF/NOK, which was within a single krone of breaking above the price channel at this morning's scan of the 124 pairs I follow, put on an extra push and broke out to bull phase later in the day.
It's not a trade that I would take on my own account. Short-term interest rates in Switzerland are 0.18%, and in Norway they're 2.67%. So, long positions are paying about 250 basis points in intrest for the privilege of existing.
It's not a trade that I would take on my own account. Short-term interest rates in Switzerland are 0.18%, and in Norway they're 2.67%. So, long positions are paying about 250 basis points in intrest for the privilege of existing.
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHF/NOK | may17 | Nkr6.349 | Nkr6.265 | 0.084 | 1.3% |
5/18 Almanac
On Wednesday, May 18: Money policy minutes.
There are three days before May options expire, 31 the June, 59 the July and 94 the August.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are three days before May options expire, 31 the June, 59 the July and 94 the August.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
5/17 Top Prospects
Nine breakouts today beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).
| sym | phase | adx | bday | blevel | stop | atr | atr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BP | may16 | $42.50 | $43.36 | 0.86 | 2.0% | ||
| CSCO | may17 | $16.52 | $16.84 | 0.32 | 1.9% | ||
| EWZ+ | may17 | $70.97 | $72.73 | 1.76 | 2.5% | ||
| FCX | may17 | $46.20 | $48.16 | 1.96 | 4.2% | ||
| FWLT | may17 | $32.45 | $33.69 | 1.24 | 3.8% | ||
| NBR | may17 | $25.64 | $26.64 | 1.00 | 3.9% | ||
| PKOL+ | may16 | $34.07 | $34.81 | 0.74 | 2.2% | ||
| PXP | may17 | $32.75 | $34.03 | 1.28 | 3.9% | ||
| YHOO | may16 | $15.81 | $16.50 | 0.69 | 4.4% |
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