4/1 Watchlist

Blue chip stocks, SPY, hit $118.25 and then pulled back 90¢, as the market neared its close before the long holiday weekend. Treasury long bonds, TLT, relinquished Wednesday's expectations for lower interest rates and pulled back to Tuesday's range.

On the Watchlist, I declared two failures, two successes and a wash among stock signals for a net gain of 13.1%. In forex, one failure for a 0.9% loss.

High-yield corporate debt, JNK, traded lower from the open at the bottom of Wednesday's range, with every signaler except the psar turning bearish.

Gold (GLD) and oil (USO) both gapped up and stayed up. Soothsaying is an error-prone business, but I say, soothily, that the trading landscape is all over the map: The inability of stocks to break out of the present 12-trading-day range suggests a degree of confusion over which direction corporate profits will go. TLT's embrace of higher interest rates suggests that the Fed will do what it has said it will not: Raise interest rates soon to nip inflation in the bud. JNK's decline suggests an expecation of higher default rates among corproates, which seems at odds with a Fed crackdown. GLD and USO, by gapping up, suggests that the value of the U.S. dollar will lessen, which would be at odds with higher interest rates. The dollar was up down against the euro (EUR/USD) but up against the yen (USD/JPY), which is only half in line with GLD and USO.

A veteran of the markets, writing with the serious trader in mind, details a proven approach to analyzing market behavior, identifying profitable trade setups, and executing and managing trades–from entry to exit.

Toss in a major economic report on a day where liquidity is zero -- that's a market holiday means -- and it's enough to make me really nervous.

The Watchlist:

Stocks

Psar bull signal:

AMZN, analysis. At $131.59, a downward reversal on bad press regarding the Kindle and the competing iPad. This signal is a FAILURE for a 2% decline. EEM, analysis. At $43.06, a breakout. Next reversal at $43.07. CSCO, analysis. At $25.69, a reversal on analyst comment. This signal is a FAILURE for a 2.8% decline. GNW, analysis. At $18.30, a slight pullback after a move up. I'm declaring this signal a SUCCESS for an 11.7% gain. * MGM, analysis. At $11.95. Next nearest upside at $12.67; downside $11.50. In my analysis I pegged this a direction-agnostic iron condor, with maximum profit between $12-$10, or maybe $13-$11, so at this point, steady or lower is better. SPY, analysis. At $117.30.  Nudged through the next reversal at $118.17 but then pulled back. USO, analysis. At $41.13. A gap up that nudged through the next reversal at $41.19 and then pulled back. * XLE, analysis. At $58.38. I pegged this as a a $56-$60 iron condor. XLF, analysis. At $16.03. Next upside reversal at $16.53; downside at $15.52. XRT, analysis. At $41.55. Next highest reversal is $44.77.

A veteran of the markets, writing with the serious trader in mind, details a proven approach to analyzing market behavior, identifying profitable trade setups, and executing and managing trades–from entry to exit.

Psar bear signal:

• BBY, analysis. At $42.49. Next reversal at $40.54.
• DIA, analysis. At $108.85 after a one-day whipsaw. Next reversal $106.92, but I'm declaring this bear signal a WASH because of the signal switch, for a 0.1% decline.
• F, analysis. At $12.73, stalling and reversing a bit after a gap. Next reversal at $11.40. Because of the pause, I'm declaring this signal a SUCCESS for a 6.1% decline.
• FNM, analysis. At $1.05. Next reversal $1.03, then 98¢.
  
• JNJ, analysis. At $65.60, a bit above the max-profit range. I pegged this in analysis as a $62-$65 iron condor. I'm not playing it for my own account because of the potential profit/loss ratio, which is 1:3.
• MDZ, analysis. At $8.15. A higher open and then a volatile net down day. Next downside reversal at $7.79; upside at $8.65.
  

(*, above, means I hold a stock or options position in the issue.)

Forex

Psar bull signal:

• AUD/CAD, analysis. At C$0.9308. Next upside reversal at C$0.9418; downside at C$0.9263.
• AUD/NZD, analysis. At NZ$1.30. Next reversal at NZ$1.3097.
  
• AUD/USD, analysis (same as AUD/CAD). At $0.919. Next reversal at $0.9251
• EUR/CAD, analysis. At C$1.3687. Next upside reversal at C$1.4103; downside at C$1.3570.
• GBP/USD, analysis. At $1.5275. Next reversal at $1.5380

Psar bear signal:

• GBP/CHF, analysis. At SFr. 1.6116, with a signal switch to bull. This signal is a FAILURE for a 0.9% price gain (a loss in a bear position).
• USD/CHF, analysis (same as GBP/CHF). At SFr. 1.0547. Next reversal at SFr. 1.0367

In my holdings:

• AOD, shares, a dividend play. At $9.08. The pps bull signal is back. The third day it has disappeared and then appeared.
• JNK, shares, a dividend play. At $39.50.
  
• NLY, shares, a dividend play. At $17.27.
• MCO, an April covered call with a $29 strike, is trading at $29.50.
• MGM, an iron condor with maximum profit expiration between $10 and $12. Trading at $12.03.
• PALM, shares, a zombie position. At $3.87. The sto has moved from oversold into neutral, a bull sign. The macd is also giving a bull signal.
• XLE, An April iron condor with maximum profit at expiration between $56 and $59. Trading at $58.47.

New to Private Trader? Check out the Reader's Guide.

New to private trading? Here's a look at How to Become a Private Trader.

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic