As long-time readers will know (18,401 unique visitors so far), Private Trader has above all been a venue for experimentation and learning. As a result, it has been a place a change.
So in that spirit, I'll be making major changes to Private Trader over the weekend.
The biggest change will be elimination, beginning Monday, of the scheduled reports that have punctuated this discussion for the past two years. I'm referring to Forex, Indicators, the positions report now called Covered Calls, and the Almanac.
They worked well when oscillators and indicators were the mainstays of my trading. That's not the case anymore, and the scheduled reports have become less a set of useful tools than a distraction.
Beginning Monday, I'll write about individual stocks, options and currency pairs as they become interesting, and also about trading strategies and whatever else in our world of risk that catches my eye.
The postings will be quite irregular, no doubt. Some weeks are filled with opportunities and events. Others -- like this week -- are like sitting through five back-to-back performances of Samuel Beckett's "Waiting for Godot", the most boring play of all time.
In truth, I've seen nothing so far this week that's worth writing about, and under the new structure of this blog I doubt that I would have filed anything, beyond a big yawn and a shout-out.
But most weeks, the markets are endlessly fascinating, and I foresee no difficulty in finding things to write about.
Also, I'll continue to provide alerts when I've posted something via Facebook and Twitter.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
12/8 Indicators
The markets this morning...
Stocks
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | ||||||
| QQQ | ||||||
| VIX |
SPY (S&P 500) is trading within a downtrending channel that began May 2.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100) is within a sideways channel that began Aug. 8.
VIX (fear index) is trading below a sideways channel that began Aug. 9. The breakdown can be analyzed as either a widening of the sideways channel, or a downtrending channel beginning Oct. 4.
Bonds
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | ||||||
| JNK |
TLT (Treasury long-term debt) is trading within a downtrending channel that began Oct. 4.
JNK (corporate high-yield debt) is trading within a downtrending channel that began July 18.
Tangibles
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | ||||||
| GLD | ||||||
| JJC |
USO (crude oil) is trading within a downtrending channel that began May 2.
GLD (gold) is trading above a downtrending channel that began Sept. 5.
JJC (copper) is trading slightly above a declining channel beginning Aug. 1. It can also be seen as forming an uptrending channel from Oct. 20, but it would take a higher high beyond $48.21 to confirm the latter interpretation.
Global
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UUP | ||||||
| EEM |
UUP (U.S. dollar) is trading at the ceiling of a downtrending channel that began June 7.
EEM (emerging markets) is trading within a downtrending channel from May 2.
12/8 Forex
Notes on this morning’s forex...
GBP/USD has moved decisively above a downtrending channel that began Nov. 30. The pair is trading within the lower range of a daily-chart uptrending channel that began Oct. 6, and a weekly-chart downtrending channel that began April 25.
USD/JPY has broken below a daily-chart uptrending channel that began Oct. 31. The movement is within an hourly-chart downtrending channel that began Nov. 29.
On the weekly charts...
Weekly Channels
| pair | chan | from |
|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | Oct. 28 | |
| AUD/JPY | April 11 | |
| AUD/NZD | March 7 | |
| AUD/USD | Aug. 1 | |
| EUR/AUD | Dec 15, 2010 | |
| EUR/CAD | May 2 | |
| EUR/CHF | Aug. 8 | |
| EUR/GBP | June 27 | |
| EUR/JPY | ||
| EUR/USD | May 2 | |
| GBP/AUD | March 14 | |
| GBP/CAD | July 12, 2010 | |
| GBP/JPY | Aug. 3, 2009 | |
| GBP/USD | April 25 | |
| NZD/USD | Oct. 28 | |
| USD/CAD | July 25, 2011 | |
| USD/JPY | June 1, 2009 |
Notes:
NZD/USD is in a complex move: A downtrending channel from Aug. 1 within an uptrending channel that began May 11, 2009 or earlier. For this ongoing study, I’ll track the more recent trend in the table above and note changes in the longer uptrending channel here in the notes.
I’ve excluded high-volume pairs including CHF because of the Swiss government’s active intervention in the markets to keep the currency from rising. I’ll pick the CHF pairs up again if the policy changes.
I’ve retained the JPY pairs as Japan’s interventions appear to be less consistent than those of the Swiss.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
12/8 Almanac
On Thursday, Dec. 8: Weekly jobless claims.
There are nine days before the December options expire, 44 the January, 72 the February and 100 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
12/7 Covered Calls
12/7 Indicators
The markets this morning...
SPY broke below a seven-day trendline on the hourly chart that carried the price up 9%. QQQ made a similar move.
Stocks
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | ||||||
| QQQ | ||||||
| VIX |
SPY (S&P 500) is trading within a downtrending channel that began May 2.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100) is within a sideways channel that began Aug. 8.
VIX (fear index) is trading below a sideways channel that began Aug. 9. The breakdown can be analyzed as either a widening of the sideways channel, or a downtrending channel beginning Oct. 4.
Bonds
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | ||||||
| JNK |
TLT (Treasury long-term debt) is trading within a downtrending channel that began Oct. 4.
JNK (corporate high-yield debt) is trading within a downtrending channel that began July 18.
Tangibles
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | ||||||
| GLD | ||||||
| JJC |
USO (crude oil) is trading within a downtrending channel that began May 2.
GLD (gold) is trading above a downtrending channel that began Sept. 5.
JJC (copper) is trading within a declining channel beginning Aug. 1. It can also be seen as forming an uptrending channel from Oct. 20, but it would take a higher high beyond $48.21 to confirm the latter interpretation.
Global
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UUP | ||||||
| EEM |
UUP (U.S. dollar) is trading a the ceiling of a downtrending channel that began June 7.
EEM (emerging markets) is trading within a downtrending channel from May 2.
12/7 Forex
Notes on this morning’s forex...
On the weekly charts...
USD/CAD pierced the floor of rising price channel that has been in effect since late July. The price immediately withdrew back into the channel. The relative strength index is at 43% and has been falling sharply since late November.
Weekly Channels
| pair | chan | from |
|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | Oct. 28 | |
| AUD/JPY | April 11 | |
| AUD/NZD | March 7 | |
| AUD/USD | Aug. 1 | |
| EUR/AUD | Dec 15, 2010 | |
| EUR/CAD | May 2 | |
| EUR/CHF | Aug. 8 | |
| EUR/GBP | June 27 | |
| EUR/JPY | ||
| EUR/USD | May 2 | |
| GBP/AUD | March 14 | |
| GBP/CAD | July 12, 2010 | |
| GBP/JPY | Aug. 3, 2009 | |
| GBP/USD | April 25 | |
| NZD/USD | Oct. 28 | |
| USD/CAD | July 25, 2011 | |
| USD/JPY | June 1, 2009 |
Notes:
NZD/USD is in a complex move: A downtrending channel from Aug. 1 within an uptrending channel that began May 11, 2009 or earlier. For this ongoing study, I’ll track the more recent trend in the table above and note changes in the longer uptrending channel here in the notes.
I’ve excluded high-volume pairs including CHF because of the Swiss government’s active intervention in the markets to keep the currency from rising. I’ll pick the CHF pairs up again if the policy changes.
I’ve retained the JPY pairs as Japan’s interventions appear to be less consistent than those of the Swiss.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
12/7 Almanac
On Wednesday, Dec. 7: Petroleum inventories.
There are 10 days before the December options expire, 45 the January, 73 the February and 101 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
SNDK off the cc list
In Monday's Covered Calls report I mentioned SNDK as a potential play. It's no longer on my list, due to analyst talk.
12/6 Covered Calls
12/6 Indicators
The markets this morning...
Stocks
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | ||||||
| QQQ | ||||||
| VIX |
SPY (S&P 500) is trading within a downtrending channel that began May 2.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100) is within a sideways channel that began Aug. 8.
VIX (fear index) is trading below a sideways channel that began Aug. 9. The breakdown can be analyzed as either a widening of the sideways channel, or a downtrending channel beginning Oct. 4.
Bonds
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | ||||||
| JNK |
TLT (Treasury long-term debt) is trading within a downtrending channel that began Oct. 4.
JNK (corporate high-yield debt) is trading within a downtrending channel that began July 18.
Tangibles
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | ||||||
| GLD | ||||||
| JJC |
USO (crude oil) is trading within a downtrending channel that began May 2.
GLD (gold) is trading above a downtrending channel that began Sept. 5.
JJC (copper) is trading within a declining channel beginning Aug. 1. It can also be seen as forming an uptrending channel from Oct. 20, but it would take a higher high beyond $48.21 to confirm the latter interpretation.
Global
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UUP | ||||||
| EEM |
UUP (U.S. dollar) is trading a the ceiling of a downtrending channel that began June 7.
EEM (emerging markets) is trading within a downtrending channel from May 2.
12/6 Forex
Notes on this morning’s forex...
On the weekly charts...
Weekly Channels
| pair | chan | from |
|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | Oct. 28 | |
| AUD/JPY | April 11 | |
| AUD/NZD | March 7 | |
| AUD/USD | Aug. 1 | |
| EUR/AUD | Dec 15, 2010 | |
| EUR/CAD | May 2 | |
| EUR/CHF | Aug. 8 | |
| EUR/GBP | June 27 | |
| EUR/JPY | ||
| EUR/USD | May 2 | |
| GBP/AUD | March 14 | |
| GBP/CAD | July 12, 2010 | |
| GBP/JPY | Aug. 3, 2009 | |
| GBP/USD | April 25 | |
| NZD/USD | Oct. 28 | |
| USD/CAD | July 25, 2011 | |
| USD/JPY | June 1, 2009 |
Notes:
NZD/USD is in a complex move: A downtrending channel from Aug. 1 within an uptrending channel that began May 11, 2009 or earlier. For this ongoing study, I’ll track the more recent trend in the table above and note changes in the longer uptrending channel here in the notes.
I’ve excluded high-volume pairs including CHF because of the Swiss government’s active intervention in the markets to keep the currency from rising. I’ll pick the CHF pairs up again if the policy changes.
I’ve retained the JPY pairs as Japan’s interventions appear to be less consistent than those of the Swiss.
Monday, December 5, 2011
12/6 Almanac
On Tuesday, Dec. 6: Nothing of interest.
There are 11 days before the December options expire, 46 the January, 74 the February and 102 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
12/5 Covered Calls
This daily posting tracks my covered call plays and other base positions.
My weekly options on BIDU were exercised. Which points to an interesting set of problems.
Problem One: What to do with BIDU’s slot? I could move back in with another weekly position -- SNDK comes to mind -- or I could leave it empty until the December options expire on the 17th. With the European summit on euro problems scheduled for Thursday, I think my smart move is to skip the Weeklys this week.
Problem Two, looming: What to do with January options, two weeks down the road?
The difficulty is that the S&P 500 (as measured by the SPY exchange-traded fund) has risen 9.4% in the six trading days after Nov. 25. That’s more than four times the average true range. That’s close to being a vertical take-off.
The move has brought the price to within $1 of the 20-day high of $128.02, and to within $3 of the ceiling of the slightly declining price channel that has been in effect since May 2. The price is within $3 of the previous highest high of $129.42, marked on Oct. 27.
So without a strong breakout to the upside, nearly all the risk on SPY is to the downside. If SPY starts to decline significantly, it will carry most of the market with it.
Traders who consider the recent sharp rise to be well motivated -- for example, a deep-seated faith in the healing power of the euro-zone -- will jump into bull positions, the cautiously bullish will go for covered calls, and euro-zone skeptics will stay in cash or start opening bear positions.
I’m a euro skeptic. I think the euro is structured like a Rube Goldberg device. With that in mind, I’ve opened bear positions the past week. The question facing me is what to do with my covered call money, which is the bulk of my holdings.
Another possibility is to sell iron condors on sideways-trading stocks.
Anyhow, I shall go slow entering this next cycle, on Newtonian grounds: What shoots up must plummet down.
Covered Calls| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDS | ||||||
| GDX | ||||||
| LVS | ||||||
| RIMM |
12/5 Indicators
The markets this morning...
Stocks
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | ||||||
| QQQ | ||||||
| VIX |
SPY (S&P 500) is trading within a downtrending channel that began May 2.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100) is within a sideways channel that began Aug. 8.
VIX (fear index) is trading below a sideways channel that began Aug. 9. The breakdown can be analyzed as either a widening of the sideways channel, or a downtrending channel beginning Oct. 4.
Bonds
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | ||||||
| JNK |
TLT (Treasury long-term debt) is trading within a downtrending channel that began Oct. 4.
JNK (corporate high-yield debt) is trading within a downtrending channel that began July 18.
Tangibles
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | ||||||
| GLD | ||||||
| JJC |
USO (crude oil) is trading within a downtrending channel that began May 2.
GLD (gold) is trading above a downtrending channel that began Sept. 5.
JJC (copper) is trading within a declining channel beginning Aug. 1. It can also be seen as forming an uptrending channel from Oct. 20, but it would take a higher high beyond $48.21 to confirm the latter interpretation.
Global
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UUP | ||||||
| EEM |
UUP (U.S. dollar) is trading within a downtrending channel that began June 7.
EEM (emerging markets) is trading within a downtrending channel from May 2.
12/5 Forex
Notes on this morning’s forex...
The currency markets are marking time as the fate of the euro, for now at least, is settled.
On the weekly charts...
Weekly Channels
| pair | chan | from |
|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | Oct. 28 | |
| AUD/JPY | April 11 | |
| AUD/NZD | March 7 | |
| AUD/USD | Aug. 1 | |
| EUR/AUD | Dec 15, 2010 | |
| EUR/CAD | May 2 | |
| EUR/CHF | Aug. 8 | |
| EUR/GBP | June 27 | |
| EUR/JPY | ||
| EUR/USD | May 2 | |
| GBP/AUD | March 14 | |
| GBP/CAD | July 12, 2010 | |
| GBP/JPY | Aug. 3, 2009 | |
| GBP/USD | April 25 | |
| NZD/USD | Oct. 28 | |
| USD/CAD | July 25, 2011 | |
| USD/JPY | June 1, 2009 |
Notes:
NZD/USD is in a complex move: A downtrending channel from Aug. 1 within an uptrending channel that began May 11, 2009 or earlier. For this ongoing study, I’ll track the more recent trend in the table above and note changes in the longer uptrending channel here in the notes.
I’ve excluded high-volume pairs including CHF because of the Swiss government’s active intervention in the markets to keep the currency from rising. I’ll pick the CHF pairs up again if the policy changes.
I’ve retained the JPY pairs as Japan’s interventions appear to be less consistent than those of the Swiss.
Friday, December 2, 2011
12/5 Almanac
On Monday, Dec. 5: Factory orders, non-manufacturing index.
There are 12 days before the December options expire, 47 the January, 75 the February and 103 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
12/2 Indicators
The markets this morning...
The VIX and JJC are trading beyond their trend channels, throwing their charts into ambiguity and confusion.
Stocks
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | ||||||
| QQQ | ||||||
| VIX |
SPY (S&P 500) is trading within a downtrending channel that began May 2.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100) is within a sideways channel that began Aug. 8.
VIX (fear index) is trading below a sideways channel that began Aug. 9. The breakdown can be analyzed as either a widening of the sideways channel, or a downtrending channel beginning Oct. 4.
Bonds
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | ||||||
| JNK |
TLT (Treasury long-term debt) is trading within a downtrending channel that began Oct. 4.
JNK (corporate high-yield debt) is trading within a downtrending channel that began July 18.
Tangibles
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | ||||||
| GLD | ||||||
| JJC |
USO (crude oil) is trading within a downtrending channel that began May 2.
GLD (gold) is trading above a downtrending channel that began Sept. 5.
JJC (copper) is trading within a declining channel beginning Aug. 1. It can also be seen as forming an uptrending channel from Oct. 20, but it would take a higher high beyond $48.21 to confirm the latter interpretation.
Global
| sym | phase | trend | adx | 200/50 | 40/10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UUP | ||||||
| EEM |
UUP (U.S. dollar) is trading within a downtrending channel that began June 7.
EEM (emerging markets) is trading within a downtrending channel from May 2.
12/2 Forex
Notes on this morning’s forex...
USD/CAD is at the floor of its trend channel with a still declining relative strength index, now at 42. RSI support is at 40, and if that level holds then the pair may be primed for a reversal to the upside.
AUD/NZD continues to trade near the ceiling, at NZ$1.316 of a gently declining trend channel. Very near term price support is at NZ$1.306, and a drop below that level accompanied by a declining RSI would suggest a downside reversal is underway.
EUR/AUD is trading a third sideways day near its 20-day low, a broad support range that has provided a bounce three times since late July. Fourth time’s the charm?
On the weekly charts...
Weekly Channels
| pair | chan | from |
|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | Oct. 28 | |
| AUD/JPY | April 11 | |
| AUD/NZD | March 7 | |
| AUD/USD | Aug. 1 | |
| EUR/AUD | Dec 15, 2010 | |
| EUR/CAD | May 2 | |
| EUR/CHF | Aug. 8 | |
| EUR/GBP | June 27 | |
| EUR/JPY | ||
| EUR/USD | May 2 | |
| GBP/AUD | March 14 | |
| GBP/CAD | July 12, 2010 | |
| GBP/JPY | Aug. 3, 2009 | |
| GBP/USD | April 25 | |
| NZD/USD | Oct. 28 | |
| USD/CAD | July 25, 2011 | |
| USD/JPY | June 1, 2009 |
Notes:
NZD/USD is in a complex move: A downtrending channel from Aug. 1 within an uptrending channel that began May 11, 2009 or earlier. For this ongoing study, I’ll track the more recent trend in the table above and note changes in the longer uptrending channel here in the notes.
I’ve excluded high-volume pairs including CHF because of the Swiss government’s active intervention in the markets to keep the currency from rising. I’ll pick the CHF pairs up again if the policy changes.
I’ve retained the JPY pairs as Japan’s interventions appear to be less consistent than those of the Swiss.
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