5/11 Morningline: Stocks and Bonds

Forget technical analysis, Buffetology, earnings, debt ratios, analyst consensus, Greece, the euro, Spain, the aspects of Mercury, and all the rest of the baggage we bring to our work in the markets.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $115.44
VIX 30.30
TLT $93.92

At 9:44 a.m. Eastern

All a trader needs to know is the "Itsy Bitsy Spider" song. You know, the one where Itsy Bitsy Spider climbs up the water spout, gets washed out by the rain, and then climbs up the spout again.

5/11 Almanac

On Tuesday, May 11: Minor retail sales reports, wholesale trade

There are 11 days before the last trading day for May options, 39 the June and 67 the July.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, rules, my holdings and a good book...

5/10 Watchlist: Forex

In the forex Watchlist, no exits, no new signals.

5/10 Watchlist: Stocks

Everything on the Watchlist is up, as eurofear retreats. "Up" in this case means back to where things were trading on Thursday before the afternoon mini-panic. So not much of up.

5/10 Scan

Today's scan was a bit on the strange side. There were many parabolic sar bull signals as the markets responded to the EU's aggressive action to preserve the euro's value.

And many issues are showing strong trends on the average directional index.

The problem comes when look at the adx more closely, for it shows the adx readings went up quickly with the sell-off during the extreme few days of fear that the euro would collapse.

JNJ Watch

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shows a parabolic sar bull signal today. It isn't a strongly trending stock, and would be a candidate for a sideways play, such as an iron condor.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
JNJ $64.51

At 2:49 p.m. Eastern

The average directional index is margine, at 23.

CPN Watch

Calpine Corp. (CPN) shows a parabolic sar bull signal today. It produced an extreme intra-day low during the mini-panic of May 6, but that ought to have, if anything, a depressing effect on a switch to bull phase.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
CPN $13.72

At 2:35 p.m. Eastern

Although the average directional index, at 33, suggests a strongly trending stock, the reality is somewhat different.

Opened AOD Dividend Position

I've reopened my dividend position in the Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD).

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $8.51

At 1:40 p.m. Eastern

I had exited the fund on April 26 when it showed a bear signal on the parabolic sar. The stock afterward declined to a low of $7.51 (if you include the mini-panic of May 6), or $7.92 if you consider the panic to be an invalid outlier in terms of analysis (I take the latter approach).

5/10 Morningline: Holdings

A march through my holdings, short and sweet: The May options bull positions are all up, GE the most, by nearly 8%, CIEN trailing the pack at about 3%.

Dividend plays also up. Special situation PALM, a takeover that I'm holding pending lawsuits, is down a bit, and MCO, a zombie position, is down nearly 8% on a notice of an adverse SEC proceeding against the company.

Despite the steep moves, there are no parabolic sar phase switches today.

5/10 Forex

No phase switches this morning on Person's Proprietary Signal. Oddly, I would add, given all the post-eurofear movement in forex.

Even if there were new signals, I would be treating them with huge caution, given the fact that markets today are being driven by a single news event.

My rule regarding news is to follow Lord Nathan Rothschild's advice: "Buy to the sound of cannons and sell to the sound of trumpets. The weekend's news about the EU's facility to protect the euro is all trumpets.

5/10 Morningline: Other Indicators

The indicators are behaving as I would expect, given a resolution of the euro crisis. For the euro crisis cast doubts on two elements important to valuing stocks and bonds: The worth of the dollar against other currencies and the consequent ability of companies to compete in world markets.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
JNK $38.82
GLD $117.05
USO $37.11
EEM $40.55
EUR/USD $1.2872
USD/JPY ¥93.16

At 10:06 a.m. Eastern

The decline of euro during the crisis strengthened the dollar, both against the euro and as a presumed safe haven for value in uncertain times. A stronger dollar means U.S. goods cost more abroad, hindering the ability of American exporters to profit from competitive prices.

5/10 Morningline: Stocks and Bonds

Let's pour some vinegar on the Happy. Can't allowed unrestrained happy in markets. 'Twouldn't be prudent.

Everyone is gapping this morning, obviously, in response to the big players in the European Union deciding over the weekend to put some big money in support of the euro.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $116.49
VIX 26.06
TLT $93.13

At 9:47 a.m. Eastern

Blue-chip stocks (SPY) are trading 4.6% above Friday's close, and Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) are 2.6% below.

Now the vinegar: All of that movement simply puts the prices within spitting distance of where they were when they opened on Thursday, before the computers ran riot in a mini-panic untouched by human hands.

5/10 Almanac

On Monday, May 10: No econ reports. Take the day off!

There are 12 days before the last trading day for May options, 40 the June and 68 the July.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, rules, my holdings and a good book...

CIEN Watch

Ciena Corp. (CIEN) fell back along the entire length of its decline during Thursday's software-driven selling panic and traded below Thursday's low.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
CIEN $15.98

At 3:26 p.m. Eastern

Today's open was just below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $16.06.

FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) continued to trade above a key technical level and for the first time in three days stayed within the prior day's range rather than gapping to new lows.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $1.02

At 3:12 p.m. Eastern

Today's low so far has been $1.01, 2¢ above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 99¢, which has been a key support level since January.

5/7 Watchlist: Forex

The GBP/CHF forex pair was confirmed for the bear list. In the old-style analysis block, the EUR/GBP signal was exited as a success.

5/7 Watchlist: Stocks

Everything on the Watchlist is way down, except for a bear signal, ABT, which is only a little bit down. X added to the bear list.

Go figure!

Decision time: Sell out for a big loss or hold over the weekend in hopes of a bounce? I remember the Friday before Black Monday in 1987. I elected to hold over the weekend. Bad choice.

5/7 Scan

All the signals I encountered today were on stocks whose parabolic sar had been poisoned by Thursday's computer-driven panic, which distorted the daily lows by 10% or so.

In the lists that follow, I'll include the macd information, which remains valid, since it only using daily closes, in discussing the counter-trend items.

X (United States Steel) Watch

United States Steel Corp. (X) is showing a parabolic sar bear signal, following a one-day bull whipsaw.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
X $53.06

At 1:38 p.m. Eastern

5/7 Forex: GBP/CHF

The cable/Swiss franc (GBP/CHF) currency pair has whipsawed on Person's Proprietary Signal back into bear phase.

The pps technical tool was poisoned by the May 6 Skynet Panic, and the GBP/CHF forex pair participated in that software driven move.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
$SF1.6294

At 11:30 a.m. Eastern

Today's sharp downward price move nearly touched the lower Person's pivot (also poisoned).