The Week Ahead: Yellen and Yawners

Fed Pres. Janet Yellen speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy to World Affairs Council of Philadelphia on Monday at 12:30 p.m. New York time.

Otherwise, it is a week of yawners.

In the absence of any potential market-movers in the economic reporting, it is sure to get even more outsized attention than her remarks normally do. The Federal Open Market Committee meets on June 15. Will they raise rates or won't they? Perhaps Pres. Yellen will drop a hint.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.


The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

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Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Productivity and costs, an important topic of discussion lately, at 8:30 a.m. Stats show productivity is in a secular decline. Why? How to reverse?

Wednesday: Job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m. and  petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday:  Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.47%, down four basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

Bills

• 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
• 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
• 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.

Notes

• 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
• 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.

Bonds

• 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.

TIPS

• None.

Fedsters

In addition to Yellen and her speech in Philadelphia, one other member of the Federal Open Market Committee has scheduled a public appearance: Boston Fed Gov. Eric Rosengren on Monday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 468 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Pensée

Journalist Frank Scully on risk: "Why not go out on a limb? Isn’t that where the fruit is?" (Variety, 1950)

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 5, 2016

References


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



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Based on a work at www.timbovee.com