It had initially been expected that the Fed would raise rates again in June, but the odds appeared to lessen after a sharp decline in the pact at which jobs are being added to the economy.
A report with a bearings on interest rate decisions, the consumer price index, will be poublished Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
Other important economic reports scheduled for the week: On Tuesday, retail sales on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m.; on Wednesday, producer prices at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.; on Thursday; and on Friday, housing starts at 8:30 a.m.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
Building permits for new private homes from the housing starts survey at 8:30 a.m. Friday.
by Richard Dale
Events arranged by day:
Tuesday: Retail sales and import and export prices, each at 8:30 a.m., and business inventories at 10 a.m.
Wednesday: Producer prices and the Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York, each at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m., FOMC meeting announcement and FOMC member forecasts at 2 p.m., Fed Chair Janet Yellen news conference at 2:30 p.m. and the Treasury Department international capital report at 4 p.m.
Thursday: The consumer price index, jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey of conditions in the mid-Atlantic state, each at 8:30 a.m., the Home Builders' housing market index at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.51%, up four basis points from a week earlier.
- 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 3-year: Settlement Wednesday
- 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 10-year: Settlement Wednesday
- 30-year: Settlement Wednesday
- 30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
There are no scheduled public appearances by the Federal reserve glitterati outside of the Fed Chair Janet Yellen's news conference on Wednesday at 2:30 p.m.
This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 482 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.
Money well managed deserves, indeed, the apotheosis to which she was raised by her Latin adorers; she is Diva Moneta -- a goddess.
--Edward Bulwer-Lytton, "On the Management of Money" (1864)
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 12, 2016
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
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