Sunday, June 26, 2016

The Week Ahead: GDP, income and outlays, international trade, Euro-Yellen

The third and final estimate of Gross Domestic Product for the 2nd quarter will be published on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Other major reports out during the week: International trade in goods on Monday and personal income and outlays on Wednesday, each at 8:30 a.m., and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index on Friday at 10 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen participates in a timely post-Brexit policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking in Linho Sintra, Portugal, at 9:30 a.m. New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

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Events arranged by day:

Monday: International trade in goods at 8:30 a.m. and the Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey of conditions in Texas at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday: GDP at 8:30 a.m., the Standard and Poors Case-Shiller home price index of 20 metropolitan ares at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m., Fed Chair Yellen apperaance at 9:30 a.m., pending home sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago Purchasing Managers Institute index at 9:45 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m. and the ISM manufacturing index and construction spending, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.39%, down five basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • None.
  • None.
  • None.

In addition to Fed Chair Yellen  taking part in an ECB panel on Friday, Fed Gov. Jerome Powell speaks on Recent Economic Developments, Monetary Policy considerations and Longer-term Prospects at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Food, Fuel and Finance Series on Tuesday at 7 p.m. New York time.

Other Federal Open Market Committee members making public appearances are St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Thursday and Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester on Friday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 472 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.


We are a very special construction unique in the history of mankind … Sometimes I like to compare the EU as a creation to the organisation of empire. We have the dimension of empire .. What we have is the first non-imperial empire .. We have 27 countries that fully decided to work together and to pool their sovereignty. I believe it is a great construction and we should be proud of it.

--José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission (2007)

Good trading! And for American readers, have a great 4th of July.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 26, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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