Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Wednesday's Agenda

I have three prospects on my desk this morning, and I have the Federal Open Market Committee announcement on interest rates creating complications for the day.

The FOMC announces its decision at 2 p.m. New York time, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen holds a news conference at 2:30 p.m.

The problem is, do I analyze today's potential trades before the Fed acts, or do I wait until after the decision. Cannons or trumpets? Nathan Rothschild, who famously is said to have said of the Battle of Waterloo, "Buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets", would understand.

Here is how I'm parsing the problem:

CVX, whose bull signal creates a potential direction-neutral play, is an oil company, and oil seems to be dancing to the beat of its own drummer these days. I shall analyze it prior to the Fed's actions.

A potential earnings play on ORCL and a bull play on CCL after a trading signal are a different sort of problem. I judge them to be more likely to move with the broad market, and I shall analyze them after the Fed decision.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 16, 2015


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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