Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Friday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.
The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report on Friday at 10 a.m.
Events arranged by day:
Tuesday: Job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.
Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims and import and export prices, both at 8:30 a.m., the Treasury budget at 2 p.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: Retail sales and producer prices, both at 8:30 a.m., and business inventories and consumer sentiment, both at 10 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.38%, unchanged from a week earlier.
- 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
- 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
- 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
- 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard makes an appearance on Monday. An alternate on the Federal Open Market Committee, he alone among the Fed glitterati is venturing out into public during the week.
This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 490 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 6, 2015
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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