Sunday, December 27, 2015

The Week Ahead: A Week of No Significance

I once read a book with the subtitle, "A Year of No Significance". A similar subtitle could be used to describe the week to come, with no potential market-movers among the handful of economic reports lined up for release.

And even if there were, who would be there to trade? I imagine Wall Street as a ghost town, populated only by interns sailing pizza tins across the desks of the bull pens, occasionally pausing to place incomprehensible orders with the markets.

Markets are closed on Friday for the New Year's holiday. The bond markets close two hours early, at 2 p.m. New York time, on Thursday, New Year's Eve.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Friday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday: The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for 20 metropolitan areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Pending home sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

ThursdayJobless claims at 8:30 a.m.,  the Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m., U.S. bond markets close at 2 p.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: U.S. markets closed

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.41%, up 0.14% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Auction Monday 1 p.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 5-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 7-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m., settlement Thursday.
  • None.
  • 5-year: Settlement Thursday.

In my imagination, the Fed glitterati are out shopping for fine champagne to toast the end of a year that saw the economy strengthen to a point that allows them to begin returning the interest-rates to their normal relationship with inflation.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 493 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Happy New Year, and good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 27, 2015


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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