Sunday, December 20, 2015

The Week Ahead: GDP, durables, income, real estate

A snow shower of economic reports dusts the trading week, which is shortened in New York, London and Sydney by the Christmas holiday on Friday, when markets are closed. U.S. markets will close early on Thursday, at 1 p.m. New York time. In Japan, markets will be open, but everything is winding down for the extended New Year's holiday.

The third revision of the 3rd quarter gross domestic product will be published on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. The second revision a month ago came in at an annual rate of up 2.1%. Any significant impact from the month-ago number will have market impact, especially insofar as it gives insight to the Federal Open Market Committee's decision-making on further tightening.

Look for durable goods orders and personal income and outlays, both on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., and for two real estate reports, existing home sales on Tuesday and new home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Friday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report on Wednesday at 10 a.m.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: GDP at 8:30 a.m. and existing home sales at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Durable goods orders and personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m., new home sales and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

ThursdayJobless claims at 8:30 a.m., U.S. markets close at 1 p.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: U.S. markets closed

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.27%, up 0.4% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year fixed rate: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • None.
  • None.

Silence, as the Federal Reserve glitterati finish up their holiday preparations, busily laboring in the kitchen amid the stimulating smells of bubbling pies made from the tasty apple and the crispy pecan.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 484 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 20, 2015


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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