Sunday, November 8, 2015

The Week Ahead: Prices, sales, Yellen

Two reports, the producer price index and retail sales, are the potential market movers in what is otherwise a very quiet week. Both will be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Wednesday is the Veterans Day holiday in the United States. Banks are closed, but markets are open. London, Tokyo and Sydney will also be open for business.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Thursday appear before the Conference on Monetary Policy Implementation and Transmission in the Post-Crisis Period in Washington D.C. Yellen delivers welcoming remarks a 9:30 a.m., and Fischer delivers an address on The Transmission of Exchange Rate Changes to Output and Inflation at 6 p.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report on Friday at 10 a.m.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m.

Wednesday: Veterans Day holiday

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m.,  job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. , the Treasury budget at 2 p.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Producer price index and retail sales at 8:30 a.m. and business inventories and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.31%, up 0.05% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m.
  • 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Aside from Yellen and Fischer, a smattering of the Federal Reserve glitterati take to the podium during the week.

Two other FOMC members make appearances: Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Tuesday and Thursday, Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker on Thursday.

Three FOMC alternates will speak: Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Monday, St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Thursday and Cleveland Fed Pres Loretta Mester on Friday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 500 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 8, 2015


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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