Sunday, November 15, 2015

The Week Ahead: Price, production, housing, money policy

Prices, production, housing and the secrets of the last money policy meeting add salsa to the week in economic reporting.

The consumer price index, the headline measure of inflation, will be published on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, to be followed by industrial production 45 minutes later at 9:15 a.m. Housing starts will be released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

But the spiciest morsel on the information platter will be the Federal Open Market Committee minutes for the meeting of Oct. 28. The Fed at that meeting was widely expected to raise the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25%. They didn't, and their reasoning as revealed in the minutes will do much to form expectations for the FOMC's next meeting on Dec. 15 and 16.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

The index of leading indicators, out Thursday at 10 a.m., isn't itself a leading indicators but a summation that provides a useful you-are-here marker in the economic cycle.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m.

Tuesday: Consumer price index at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m., the Home Builders housing market index and the Treasury international capital report at 4 p.m.

Wednesday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business outlook survey of conditions in the mid-Atlantic region at 8:30 a.m., leading indicators at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.27%, down 0.04% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • None.
  • 10-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer addresses the San Francisco Fed's Asia Economic Policy Conference on Thursday at 4:45 p.m. New York time. His subject: Emerging Asia in Transition.

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell delivers a speech to the Clearing House Annual Conference in New York on Tuesday at 1:15 p.m. His subject: Central Clearing in an Interdependent World.

Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo speaks at a Brookings Institution review of the safety of the financial system after the 2007-2008 crisis on Tuesday at 3:30 p.m. in Washington. His subject: Thinking Critically About Non-Bank Financial Intermediation.

In addition to Fischer, Powell and Tarullo, one other member of the Federal Open Market Committee has scheduled an appearance: Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart on Thursday.

An FOMC alternate, St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard, speaks on Friday.

And another of the Fed glitterati who has no FOMC position this year takes to the podium: Dallas Fed Pres. Rob Kaplan on Wednesday

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 493 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 15, 2015


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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