Sunday, November 1, 2015

The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, Yellen

The Fed having punted on its long-expected tightening last week, the economic spotlight moves from finance to jobs, with the employment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

As always, the government reported will get a sneak preview in the form of the privately generated ADP employment report out Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Both finance and jobs will get an airing when Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifies before Congress on Wednesday at 10 a.m.

Two other potential market movers are on the calendar: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m. and international trade on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m.  Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day and factory orders at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., international trade at 8:30 a.m., Fed Chair Yellen testimony before a House committee and the ISM non-manufacturing index, each at 10 a.m., and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and productivity and costs, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment report at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.26%.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 3-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
  • 10-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
  • 30-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
  • None.

It's a high profile week for the Fed glitterati, topped in signficiance by Fed Chair Yellen testifying before the House Committee on Financial Services on Wednesday at 10 a.m.

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer addresses the National Economists Club in Washington on Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. His topic: Central Bank Independence.

And Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo speaks before the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's International Banking Conference on Thursday at 1:25 p.m. His topi: Sharing Responsibility for the Regulation of International Banks.

Other members of the Federal Open Market Committee taking to the podium are:
Fed Gov. Lael Brainard on Wednesday and Friday, New York Fed. Pres. William Dudley on Wednesday and Thursday, Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart, Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans and Fischer, again, on Thursday

One FOMC alternate, St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard, speaks, on Friday.

One top Fed official, who has no FOMC position this year, will also make an appearance: Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker on Wednesday and Thursday

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 507 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 1, 2015


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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