Sunday, November 22, 2015

The Week Ahead: GDP, durables, income, homes, Thanksgiving

The second revision of the gross domestic product for the 3rd quarter will be published on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. The first estimate, released in October, showed an annual rate of increase of 1.5%.

Durable goods orders and personal income and outlays will be released on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Also, expect two real estate reports: Existing home sales (the bulk of the housing market) on Monday and new home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m.

U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday, resulting in a shuffling of the normal day for some events. London, Tokyo and Sydney will be open as usual. U.S. markets will close early, at 1 p.m., on Friday.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Friday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 10 a.m. on Wednesday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index flash release at 9:45 a.m. and existing home sales at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: GDP at 8:30 a.m., the S&P Case-Shiller home price index for 20 metro areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Durable goods, jobless claims and personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m., new home sales and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m., and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving day.

Friday: U.S. markets close early at 1 p.m. and M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.37%, up 0.10% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Friday
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 2-year fixed rate: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
  • 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 7-year: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
  • None.
  • None.

Nary a peep from the Federal Reserve glitterati this week, as all prepare their Thanksgiving turkeys for roasting and ease back on the spicy stimulus of their closely held stuffing recipes.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 503 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Happy Thanksgiving, and good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 22, 2015


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Tim Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at

No comments:

Post a Comment