Update 9/3/2015: USB gapped down sharply along with much of the market during the China Panic and ended up below the profit zone. It moved back into slight profitability today, and I have exited the put options, transforming the position into a bear spread.
I shall calculate results after the entire position expires in mid-September.
The financial services holding company U.S. Bancorp (USB), headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota, closed below its 20-day price channel on Thursday and traded still lower on Friday. The symbol has low historical odds of profitable bear signals, making it a candidate for a non-directional trade.
[USB in Wikipedia]
I shall use the SEP series of options, which trades for the last time 28 days hence, on Sept. 18.
USB has completed six bear signals in the past year, all of them unsuccessful. The signals on average lost 3.3% over 20 days.
Click on chart to enlarge.
|USB at 12:40 p.m. New York time, 90 days 2-hour bars|
|Week||SD1 68.2%||SD2 95%||Chart||Earns|
short the $41 puts and long the $39 puts,
sold for a credit and expiring Sept. 19.
Probability of expiring out-of-the-money
The premium is $0.43, which is 22% of the width of the position’s wings.The stock at the time of purchase was priced at $43.39.
The risk/reward ratio is 3.7:1.
The zone of profit in the proposed trade covers a $3 move either way, or 4.5 times the average true daily range of $0.67.
Decision for My Account
I have opened a position on USB as described above.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 21, 2015
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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