The consumer price index will lead the economic reporting headlines next week. It will be released on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
Housing starts, out Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., will come in a close second in significance.
Other majors: Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the July 29 meeting on Monday at 2 p.m., and existing home sales and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey, both on Thursday at 10 a.m.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
Building permits for new private homes from the housing starts report, at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday.
Events arranged by day:
Monday: The Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m., the Home Builders' housing market index at 10 a.m. and the Treasury Department international capital report at 4 p.m.
Tuesday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m.
Wednesday: Consumer price index at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business outlook survey, existing home sales at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: The PMI manufacturing index flash report at 9:45 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.33%.
- 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m.
- 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 3-year: Settlement Monday.
- 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 30-year: Settlement Monday.
- 5-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams is the lone member of the Federal Reserve glitterati to speak during the week. A member of the Federal Open Market Committee, Lockhart makes an appearance in Jakarta, Indonesia.
This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 500 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.
-- Tim Bovee, Fukuoka, Japan, Aug. 14, 2015
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