Sunday, August 2, 2015

The Week Ahead: Employment, income, outlays and more

As peak earnings season reaches its end and the money policy makers continue their slow march toward tightening, the employment situation report, out Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, will set the theme for market thinking during the week.

The report will have a sneak preview in the form of the ADP employment report, issued by a leading payrolls company on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Other major economics reports out during the week: Personal income and outlays, the basis for calculating the savings rate, on Monday at 8:30 a.m., international trade on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, on Monday at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing, from the employment situation report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers new orders for consumer goods and materials, from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliverites times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m., Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Factory orders at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., international trade at 8:30 a.m. the ISM non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment situation at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.44%.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
  • 10-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
  • 30-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
  • None.

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell delivers remarks on "The Structure and Liquidity of Treasury Bond Markets" on Monday at 10:50 a.m. to a Brookings Institute Conference on structural issues in bond markets.

Otherwise, the Federal Reserve glitterati are laying low, perhaps to make room for the employment report, or perhaps they're all at the beach.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 500 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Fukuoka, Japan, Aug. 2, 2015


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