Saturday, August 29, 2015

The Week Ahead: Jobs, factories and trade

The employment situation report dominates will place another marker on the scale as the Federal Open Market Committee weighs its next move on interest rates. The report, including the headline-generating unemployment rate, will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The jobs stats will get preview on Wednesday as the ADP employment report, prepared by the leading U.S. payroll company, is released at 8:15 a.m.

Two other potential market movers are on the economic reporting calendar: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Tuesday at 10 a.m. and international trade on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and the Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the Purchasing Managers manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the ISM manufacturing index at 10 a.m. and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m., factory orders at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2 p.m.

Thursday: International trade and jobless claims, both at 8:30 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.31%.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 3-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 5-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 7-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 5-year: Settlement Monday.

With the Jackson Hole Conference over and the Beige Book hitting the screens on Wednesday, a few of the Federal Reserve glitterati are suddenly in a talkative mood.

Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, speaks on Friday.

Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren, an FOMC alternate, takes to the podium on Tuesday

And Minneapolis Fed Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota, who holds no FOMC position this year, has an appearance on Thursday

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 509 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 29, 2015


My trading rules can be read here.


Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.


Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Tim Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at

No comments:

Post a Comment