Sunday, August 23, 2015

The Week Ahead: GDP, new homes, durables, income, outlays, Jackson Hole

The second estimate of 2nd quarter gross domestic product will be published Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. An unexpected revision from the first estimate could have an impact on stocks.

Other potential market-movers out during the week, new home sales on Tuesday at 10 a.m., durable goods orders on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. and personal income and outlays on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer addresses the Fed's annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Saturday at 12:25 pm. New York time. The Jackson Hole get together, which begins on Thursday with the theme "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy", will be closely watched as a source of the Fed's big-picture thinking. Fed Chair Janet Yellen won't attend the symposium this year, the second time in three years that the Fed's chief hasn't been part of the event.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index in 20 metro areas at 9 a.m. and new home sales and consumer confidence, both at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: GDP and jobless claims, both at 8:30 a.m.m and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.21%.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
  • 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 7-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • None.
  • None.

Outside of Jackson Hole, only one of the Federal Reserve glitterati has scheduled a speech during the week: Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart on Monday. Lockhart is a member of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 493 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 23, 2015


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