Sunday, April 12, 2015

The Week Ahead: Prices, retail, industry, housing

The value of money and the robustness of retailing, industry and housing dominate the week's economics reporting.

Two measures of purchasing power will hit the headlines: The producer price index on Tuesday at and the consumer price index on Friday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Retail sales will be published on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., industrial production statistics on Wednesday at 9:15 a.m. and housing starts on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Another potential market-mover out this week: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey on Thursday at 10 a.m.

The Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book describing conditions in each of the monetary authority's 12 districts on Wednesday at 2 p.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Building permits for new private homes from the housing starts report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 10 a.m. Friday.

The leading indicators index at 10 a.m. Friday. Although not itself of leading indicator, the index compiles the leading indicators into a single number that I find to be a useful "You Are Here" marker for the economic cycle.

Other items of interest:

Monday: The Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Tuesday: Business inventories at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  The Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m., the Home Builder's housing market index at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Treasury Debt


  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Settlement Wednesday
  • 10-year: Settlement Wednesday

  • 30-year: Settlement Wednesday
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Publication of the Beige Book, out at 2 p.m. Wednesday, never fails to bring out the Fed glitterati.

Three FOMC members take to the podium: 
Fed Gov. Stanley Fischer and Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker on Wednesday, and Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart and  Fischer on Thursday. 

Three alternates have speaking engagements: St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Wednesday, and Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Thursday.

Another Federal Reserve bank president who is unconnected with the money policy committee will also speak: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota on Tuesday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 504 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades of Monthly options, I'm trading May options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading July options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares and Weekly options, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 12, 2015


My trading rules can be read here.


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