Sunday, April 5, 2015

The Week Ahead: Money policy minutes, earnings season

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the March 18 meeting will be published Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time. That meeting pointed toward significant changes in money policy, and its minutes will be carefully parsed for nuances that led to the policy decision.

Earnings season kicks off on Wednesday when Alcoa Inc. (AA) publishes its earnings after the closing bell.

Otherwise, it's a very Zen week, a week of Nothingness, a week of Śūnyatā.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Other items of interest:

Monday: The Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: The job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Friday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell addresses the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York on Wednesday at 8 p.m. His topic: Challenges for Monetary Policy.

A second FOMC member, Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker, delivers a speech on Friday.

Another of the Fed glitteratiMinneapolis Fed Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota, takes to the podium on Tuesday and Friday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 512 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades of Monthly options, I'm trading May options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading July options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares and Weekly options, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 5, 2015


My price channel trading rules can be read here. My long-term share trading rules can be read here.  My volatility trading rules can be read here. The channel rules are based on
 the classic Turtle Trading rules, which can be read here.


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