MU: Iron condor, volatility rules

Update 4/8/2015: I chose to close MU several days before expiration rather than waiting for the options to expire for maximum profit. The cost was cheap and it eliminated the possibility of a sudden move making the position unprofitable.

Shares rose by 0.7% over the seven-day lifespan of the position, or a 37% annual rate. Te options produced an 88.6% yield on debit, for a 4,618% annual rate.

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The semiconductor manufacturer Micron Technology Inc. (MU), headquartered in Boise, Idaho, publishes earnings on Wednesday, April 1, after the closing bell.

MU has Weeklys among its options inventories, and I shall trade the APR2 series of options, which trades for the last time nine days hence, on April 10.

[MU in Wikipedia]

MU

The goal of my trade is to construct a direction-neutral position with a zone of profitability at expiration covering all of the one standard deviation range implied by volatility and options pricing, or the 30-day hourly chart support and resistance range, whichever is wider.

Ranges

Click on chart to enlarge.

MU at 10 a.m. New York time, 30 days hourly bars

Implied volatility stands at 47%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of volatility of the S&P 500 index. MU’s volatility stands in the 86th percentile of its most recent rise.

Ranges implied by options and the chart

Week	SD1 68.2%	SD2 95%	Chart
Upper	29.01	31.00	28.76
Lower	25.03	23.04	25.61
Gain/loss	7.4%	14.7%

Implied volatility 1 and 2 standard deviations; chart support and resistance
The Trade

My proposed position covers all but one cent of the one standard deviation range and all of the chart range.

Iron condor short the $29 calls and long the $30 calls,
short the $25 puts and long the $24 puts
sold for a credit and expiring April 11
Probability of expiring out-of-the-money

APR2	Strike	%
Upper	29	78.0
Lower	25	74.7

The risk/reward ratio stands at 1.8:1. The premium is 35 cents (18 cents on the calls and 17 cents on the puts) with the stock going for $26.96.

Decision for My Account

I've opened a position in MU as described above.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 1, 2015

References

My volatility trading rules can be read here. For a discussion of the rationale behind the rules, see my essay, "Rules for very short term trades".

The directional score is calculated as the sum of the following:

• Zacks rating --The Zacks ratings are translated as follows: 1=2, 2=1, 3=0, 4=-1 and 5=-2.
• Enthusiasm rating --: A single percentage derived from the number of analysts whose opinions are in one of five categories: Strong buy, buy, hold, sell and strong sell.
• Strong buy share -- The percentage of all analysts who rank the stock strong buy. If the share is 60% or greater, the score is 1; if 40% or less, then the score is -1; otherwise, the score is zero.
• Ethusiasm momentum -- The score is 1 if today’s enthusiasm rating is larger than the rating 30 days earlier; otherwise, the score is zero.
• 30-day direction -- The trend that best describes the 30-day chart: 1 for an uptrend, -1 for a downtrend and zero for a sideways trend.
• One-day direction -- The trend that best describes the one-day chart: 1 for an uptrend, -1 for a downtrend and zero for a sideways trend.

From time to time I use the number 68.2% in using applied volatility to calculate the expected trading range. This comes from statistics and refers to the one standard deviation boundaries, which are expected to contain 68.2% of whatever is being studied. Putting it another way, given an item (a trade or whatever), there is a 68.2% chance that it will appear within those boundaries.

Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. The principal practitioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading. 

Several web sites summarize Elliott wave theory, among them, Investopedia, StockCharts and Wikipedia.


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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.