Sunday, December 7, 2014

The Week Ahead: Retailers and producers

Retail sales and the producer price index are the economic reports with top potential impact on the calendar this week.

The Census Bureau's retail sales report will be published on Thursday and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' producer price index on Friday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 9:55 a.m. Friday.

Other items of interest:

Tuesday; The job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the U.S. Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. and business inventories at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Treasury Debt

  • Weekly: Settlement Thursday,
  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.

  • 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.

  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.

  • 5-year: Announcement 11 a.m.


A smattering of the Fed glitterati dot the economic landscape, including an open Federal Reserve Board meeting on Tuesday to discuss a proposal to create risk-based capital surcharges for bank holding companies that are important to the nation's financial system. The meeting begins at 3 p.m.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart, an alternate on the Federal Open Market Committee, has scheduled a public appearance for Monday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 1,207 mid-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades, I'm trading January options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading March options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 7, 2014

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