Sunday, December 14, 2014

The Week Ahead: Inflation, Industry, Housing, Money

Inflation, industry and housing move to center stage in a week dominated, above all, by the final Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2014, including a news conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

industrial production figures will be published Monday at 9:15 a.m. New York time, followed by housing starts on Tuesday and the consumer price index on Wednesday, each at 8:30 a.m.

The FOMC meeting will end its two-day session with the money policy announcement at 2 p.m., accompanied by FOMC forecasts. Yellen's news conference begins at 2:30 p.m.

Also having potential move the market (although probably not much in this week's context): The Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey of conditions in the mid-Atlantic region, out Thursday at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Building permits for new private homes from the housing starts report, at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday.

Leading indicators will be released Thursday at 10 a.m. Although not considered to be a leading indicator in its own right, it is a compilation of leaders tracked by "The Week Ahead" on Private Trader and serves as a useful "You Are Here" marker for the economy.

Other items of interest:

Monday: The Empire State manufacturing survey at 8:30 a.m., the Home Builders' housing market index at 10 a.m. and the U.S. Treasury's report on international capital at 4 p.m.

Tuesday: The Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index flash report at 9:45 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Friday: Quadruple witching day, as stock index futures and options, stock options and single-stock futures end trading for expiration.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Settlement Monday
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 10-year: Settlement Monday
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 1 p.m.

'Tis The Silence of the Feds, as a hush falls over the glitterati out of deference to the FOMC meeting and news conference by Fed Chair Yellen on Wednesday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 1,198 mid-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades, I'm trading January options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading March options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 14, 2014

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Tim Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at

No comments:

Post a Comment