The Week Ahead: GDP, durables, income, spending, homes, Christmas

The Bureau of Economic Analysis makes a third estimate of 3rd quarter gross domestic product, completing the regular series of releases. A surprise change in the estimate will have a major impact on trading; a result little changed form the two prior estimates will be met with a yawn and a Meh!.

GDP will be published Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, concurrently with two other major economic reports: Durable goods orders and personal income and outlays.

Other potential market movers coming out during the week are existing home sales on Monday and its sibling, new home sales, on Tuesday, each at 10 a.m.

Thursday is the Christmas holiday celebration in New York, London and Sydney. All markets will be closed on those cities. Tokyo will be open for business. The exchanges close early on Wednesday, at 1 p.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

Several reports have been moved from their normal release days because of Christmas.

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Friday (moved from Thursday).

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday (moved from Thursday). 

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 9:55 a.m. Tuesday (moved from Friday).

Other items of interest:

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Treasury Debt

Bills

• 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Wednesday
• 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Wednesday 11 a.m.
• 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Wednesday 11 a.m.

Notes

• 2-year: Auction Monday 1 p.m.
• 2-year floating rate: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m.
• 5-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
• 7-year: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.

Fedsters

'twas the night before Christmas and all through the Marriner S. Eccles Building, not a Fedster was heard, not even a governor. All the Fed glitterati are silent for the week as they decorate their trees and stock up on eggnog.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 1,273 mid-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades, I'm trading January options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading April options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading, and enjoy the holiday!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 21, 2014

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