Of the five, only one, WFM, was from the regular list requiring better than even odds of success over the past year. The rest were from my supplemental list of potential bear signals regardless of historical odds.
Two failed confirmation by moving back within their 20-day price channels: TSM and AAL. That left the three finalists.
VOD is ranked bearish by Zacks Investment Research, the service I use to speed my fundamental analysis. The other two have a neutral ranking.
Also, VOD has an extremely high dividend, in excess of 7%. I set it aside on the grounds that a bear play with a high dividend is simply a waste, since bear positions don't collect the cash.
I consider WFM's chart to be marginally more bearish than ATVI's. This opinion is buttressed by the fact that 75% of WFM's bear signals over the past year have produced a profit, while ATVI has no history of bear signals.
The historical odds are the deciding factor. I shall do a full analysis of WFM and post it prior to the closing bell.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 16, 2014
My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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