Sunday, September 7, 2014

The Week Ahead: Retail Sales

Retail sales, out Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, is the sole major economic report scheduled this week.

There are several second-tier reports that will help shape traders' views of the market environment. There is, however, a noticeable lack of blockbusters.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 9:55 a.m. Friday.

Other items of interest:

Tuesday: The Labor Department's job opening and labor turnover report at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: The Treasury budget, showing the federal deficit, at 2 p.m.

Friday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. and business inventories at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.


Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, testifies about implementation of Dodd-Frank, the reforms in banking regulation enacted in response to the Great Recession, at a hearing of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, at 10 a.m. on Tuesday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 3,945 small-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading October options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading December options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 7, 2014

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