Sunday, September 21, 2014

The Week Ahead: GDP, home sales, durable goods

The final figures for 2nd quarter gross domestic product will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time I expect market impact only in the event that the finals are at variance with the earlier estimates.

Two broad real-estate reports are scheduled for release: Existing home sales, covering the greater part of the market, on Monday, and new home sales on Wednesday, both at 10 a.m.

Durable goods orders are due out Thursday at 8:30 a.m. The report tracks interest in products, generally expensive, intended for use over the long haul, such as cars, refrigerators, guns and smart phones.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report. at 9:55 a.m. Friday.

Other items of interest:

Tuesday: The Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing flash index at 9:45 a.m.

Wednesday:  Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.


Three members of the Federal Open Market Committee are scheduled to speak during the week: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota on Monday, Fed Gov. Jerome Powell on Tuesday, and Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester on Wednesday.

Two FOMC alternates take to the podium: Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Wednesday and Atlanta Fed. Pres. Dennis Lockhart on Thursday.

One other from among the Fed glitterati, who has no seat on the FOMC, will appear: Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George, twice on Tuesday

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 1,129 mid-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading October options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading January options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 21, 2014

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