Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Tuesday's Finalists: NSC and TSEM

The final choice comes down to two symbols: The freight railroad Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and the integrated circuit maker Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (TSEM).

The lengthy list of survivors from my first round of analysis (see "Tuesday's Prospects") weeded itself down handily with many failures of confirmation and contrary momentum. All symbols that entered finals competition had given bull signals.

Of those who failed to make the cut, 10 had charts that were insufficiently bullish to support a play: MTW, SIVB, PEGI, CQH, FET, DORM, PKG, ISLE, INGN, and ITYBY.

One, NAVI, just resumed trading a few days back after a break of several years. I treated it as having insufficient history to meet my standards. MC is a new symbol and so also has insufficient history.

Both of the final two, NSC and TSEM, are ranked neutral by Zacks Investment Research, the service I use to short-cut my fundamental analysis.

NSC has options that are sufficiently liquid for a leveraged and hedged trade. TSEM is a shares-only prospect.

TSEM has attained a higher high today and so has unmistakable bullish momentum in the near term. However, it is a counter-trend move within a downtrend that has been producing a set of lower highs for decades.

NSC's chart is ambiguous. Its highest high was in late July and it has since done the hook that marks so many charts these days. Were I being entirely consistent, I would not have included NSC in the finals.

Click on chart to enlarge.
NSC 2 years daily bars
Dishonest analysis it the father of loss. And so, with reluctance, I toss NSC, although I'm placing it on the Watchlist pending a break above its high from last July.

And I also toss TSEM. At this point I'm looking for leveraged trades, a quality TSEM cannot provide, and that leverage seems especially important given the longer-term bearish cast to the chart.

One symbol, CAT, appears on my list of innovative companies. It survived the first round of analysis but has an insufficiently bullish chart to support a trade.

I won't be doing any new analyses today.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 2, 2014


My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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