Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Wednesday's Prospects: Round 2

My first wave of screening dumped a fairly sparse selection of shells and driftwood onto the beach. The earnings exclusion rule was the main reason.

We're at the peak of earning season, and since I don't open new position is a company within 30 days of an announcement, there were a lot of symbols that failed to make it onshore. (See "Wednesday's Prospects" for my first wave of screening.)

There were a few symbols that washed up. I'm not especially enthusiastic about any of them.

I rejected N as a bear play because the trend was insufficiently bearish.

HSY looks fairly good as a bull play, but it has been in an major uptrend for decades. It's a very mature trend, and since I'm bearish the general market, I'm reluctant to jump in with a bull play at this point.

Also, the U.S. Congress once again is coming up against its debt-limit extension, with Republicans once again taking of tying the payment of debts already incurred to a gutting of President Obama's signature health-care reforms. I doubt that any of the political nonsense will prompt a market panic, but I don't know for sure and I'm more comfortable in a bearish crouch.

HSY, The Hersey Co., is one of the few companies that avoided setting a 20-year low as a result of the Great Recession -- perhaps hard times means more people seek chocolatey comfort.

Click on chart to enlarge.
HSY 20 years monthly bars
The one small-cap survivor, a bear signal from SORL, is insufficiently liquid to construct a bear position.

I won't be doing any full analyses today, nor do I plan to open any new positions.


My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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