Sunday, February 2, 2014

The Week Ahead: Employment, manufacturing, international trade

The politically important employment and unemployment report will be out Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. The ADP employment report, produced by the nation's  leading payroll services company, will provide a sneak preview on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Two other blockbuster releases are on the calendar: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m., and international trade on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Vendor performance, also called the delivery times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Other reports of interest:

Monday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the PMI manufacturing index shortly before 9 a.m. and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.


Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo testifies before the Senate Finance committee on Wednesday and the Senate Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on Thursday regarding sweeping financial-sector reforms that became law in 2010.

One other FOMC member, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Charles Plosser, takes to the podium on Wednesday.

Three FOMC alternates have scheduled appearances: Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker and Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Tuesday and Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart on Wednesday.

Another Federal Reserve Bank president, Boston's Eric Rosengren, speaks on Thursday.

Analytical universe

This week through Wednesday I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 3,861 stocks and exchange-traded funds that have some analyst interest. They are traded both on the major U.S. exchanges and over-the-counter.

I shall be traveling in East Asia from Thursday through late February. To shorten processing time while I'm on the road, I shall reduce my analytical universe to the 299 most liquid stocks and exchange traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading March options for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading May options for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

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