Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Wednesday's Prospects

On Tuesday, July 9:

Of 2,302 stocks and exchange-traded funds in this week's analytical universe, 157 that are traded on the major American stock exchanges broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 147 to the upside and 10 to the downside.

Eight symbols that are traded over the counter broke out, all to the upside.

The five highest-volume symbols to break out are SIRI, XLF, FB, XOM and PG.

Within my analytical universe, 7% of symbols gave bull or bear signals, up from 4% the prior trading day.

The ratio of bull to bear signals is 16:1, compared to 21:1 the prior trading day, a weakening of the bullish bias.

Nine of the major-exchange symbols survived my initial screening, seven having broken out to the upside and two to the downside. The bull signal symbols are DISCB, EXPR, FAS, HD, IRF, NDSN and WMT. The bear signal symbols are SDS and SH, both of them bear exchange-traded funds

Two of the over-the-counter symbols survived my initial screening, both having broken out to the upside. They are HLDCY and JMPLY.

Thirty symbols that survived the odds and yield analysis were excluded from consideration because they will publish earnings within 30 days of the breakout. They are ACM, AWR, BMS, CBRL, CCJ, CHH, DPZ, ECL, GWW, HR, INFA, IP, IRC, JLL, JNS, LECO, LOGI, MD, NRG, OMC, OSK, PBH, PRA, RCL, SUI, WDC, WFT, WM, WTR and XXIA.

I'll do further analysis of the surviving symbols on Wednesday, July 10.

The symbols I'm analyzing are mid- and large-cap stocks having analyst coverage, as well as selected exchange-traded funds. I screened them for...
  • the odds of a successful trades in the direction of the breakout since the present uptrend began on the S&P 500 weekly chart, on Oct. 4, 2011,
  • a yield adjusted by those odds of 5% or greater,
  • and absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days. 
For bear signals, I also screened to ensure the ability to do a trade, either because of the presence of options whatever their open interest or sufficient volume to allow for the short sale of shares.

My cut-off point for bullish bias is a ratio of bull to bear signals of 2:1 or greater, and for bearish bias, 1:2 or smaller, rounded to the nearest whole number.


My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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