Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Thursday's Prospects

On Wednesday, July 10:

Of 2,302 stocks and exchange-traded funds in this week's analytical universe, 75 that are traded on the major American stock exchanges broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 69 to the upside and six to the downside.

Three symbols that are traded over the counter broke out, two to the upside and one to the downside.

The five highest-volume symbols to break out are HPQ, MCP, GM, MO and FDO.

Within my analytical universe, 3% of symbols gave bull or bear signals, down from 7% the prior trading day.

The ratio of bull to bear signals is 10:1, compared to 16:1 the prior trading day, a weakening of the bullish bias.

Four of the major-exchange symbols survived my initial screening, three having broken out to the upside and one to the downside. The upside signals are on AG, SAFM and WOR, and the downside signal is on QID, an ultra short exchange-traded fund tracking the NASDAQ 100.

None of the over-the-counter symbols survived my initial screening.

Sixteen symbols that survived the odds and yield analysis were excluded from consideration because they will publish earnings within 30 days of the breakout. They are AEE, ALR, ANGI, BEAV, CZR, GM, ING, MDAS, MDRX, OI, PDLI, PEB, RHHBY, SYNT, TPX and WR.

I'll do further analysis of the surviving symbols on Thursday, July 11.
I'll be flying to Asia on Thursday, July 11, and won't be doing any follow-up analysis on that day. I'll keep the prospects for Thursday in mind when I resume analysis, on Friday, July 12, or more likely over the weekend.

The symbols I'm analyzing are mid- and large-cap stocks having analyst coverage, as well as selected exchange-traded funds. I screened them for...
  • the odds of a successful trades in the direction of the breakout since the present uptrend began on the S&P 500 weekly chart, on Oct. 4, 2011,
  • a yield adjusted by those odds of 5% or greater,
  • and absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days. 
For bear signals, I also screened to ensure the ability to do a trade, either because of the presence of options whatever their open interest or sufficient volume to allow for the short sale of shares.

My cut-off point for bullish bias is a ratio of bull to bear signals of 2:1 or greater, and for bearish bias, 1:2 or smaller, rounded to the nearest whole number.


My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

No comments:

Post a Comment