Thursday, July 25, 2013

Thursday's (Friday's) Prospects

I'm trading from East Asia for the next few weeks, and the time difference with New York adds a day to the interval between breakout and the placing of a trade. This has played hob with the titling of recurring posts, such as Prospects and No Trade. The hybrid titling in this post is my solution: I would trade on the first day in the title if I were stateside, but my first trading opportunity while traveling will be on the second day, in parentheses.

On Wednesday, July 24:

Of 2,327 stocks and exchange-traded funds in this week's analytical universe, 40 that are traded on the major American stock exchanges broke beyond their 20-day price channels, nine to the upside and 31 to the downside.

Eight symbols that are traded over the counter broke out, seven to the upside and one to the downside.

The five highest-volume symbols to break out are AAPL, PLCM, RFMD, STX and LLY.

Within my analytical universe, 2.1% of symbols gave bull or bear signals, down from 3.6% the prior trading day.

The ratio of bull to bear signals is 1:2, compared to 3:1 the prior trading day, a switch from a bullish to a bearish bias in the markets and the first bearish bias since June 24, when the ratio was 1:26.

None of the major-exchange symbols survived my initial screening.

One of the over-the-counter symbols survived my initial screening. It is WEICY, to the upside.

Two symbols that survived the odds and yield analysis were excluded from consideration because they will publish earnings within 30 days of the breakout. They are MCO and WYNN.

I shall do further analysis of the surviving symbol on Thursday, July 25 for a potential trade on Friday, July 26.

The symbols I'm analyzing are mid- and large-cap stocks having analyst coverage, as well as selected exchange-traded funds. I screened them for...
  • the odds of a successful trades in the direction of the breakout since the present uptrend began on the S&P 500 weekly chart, on Oct. 4, 2011,
  • a yield adjusted by those odds of 5% or greater,
  • and absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days. 
For bear signals, I also screened to ensure the ability to do a trade, either because of the presence of options whatever their open interest or sufficient volume to allow for the short sale of shares.

My cut-off point for bullish bias is a ratio of bull to bear signals of 2:1 or greater, and for bearish bias, 1:2 or smaller, rounded to the nearest whole number.


My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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