4/30 Almanac

On Friday, April 30: Gross Domestic Product.

There are 22 days before the last trading day for May options, 50 the June and 78 the July.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, rules, my holdings and a good book...

Opened UNP bull call spread

I've opened a bull position on UNP with the stock trading for $77.67.

The position is structured as a bull call spread which will be traded for the last time on May 21. The position is long the $75-strike call and short the $80-strike call.

4/29 Watchlist: Forex

Forex currency pairs showing Person's Proprietary Signal bull phase:

Awaiting confirmation:

• AUD/JPY, 4/29. A pull back to the pps moving average, about ¥86.70 and then a bounce with trigger entry, as will a rise above today's high, ¥87.49

4/29 Watchlist: Stocks

I've added UNP as a new bull signal.

CIEN Watch

Ciena Corp. (CIEN) is showing a bull flag on Person's Proprietary Signal, confirming a four-day-old bull signal from the parabolic sar.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
CIEN $18.38

The macd is barely moving off of the zero line, and the stochastic has crept gently into overbought territory, a bullish signal as long as it doesn't dip back into neutrality.

FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) has pulled back into the middle of a developing symmetrical triangle.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $1.26

This week it has tested both the upper and lower trendlines, and bounced back toward the center, lending credence to the structure.

The triangle, if it plays out, implies a 26¢ rise from the apex. The two trendlines will cross at about $1.27 on around May 6, the date of the next earnings announcement.

4/29 Other Signals

Other signals that turned up in my scan but were found lacking for inclusion on the Watchlist:

UNP Watch

Union Pacific Corp. (UNP), the railway company, is showing a parabolic sar bull signal this morning after a two-day whipsaw to the bear side.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
UNP $77.89

The bull signal is aligned with an acceptably strong uptrend, with an average directional index of 31, albeit one that showed some weakness in late March.

UNG Watch

The natural-gas exchange-traded fund, UNG, is showing a bear flag on Person's Proprietary Signal with a fairly stunning 7.5% decline high to low in intra-day trading.

USO Watch

The crude oil exchange-traded fund, USO, is showing a bull flag on Person's Proprietary Signal.

The signal comes on a gap and upswing to 1.5% above the pps slow moving average, so I take that as no pullback confirmation needed.

The upside target is $42.26, 3.3% above the current level.

4/29 Forex: AUD/JPY

The Australian dollar-Japanese yen currency pair (AUD/JPY) is showing bull on Person's Proprietary Signal.

A pull back to ¥86.70 and then a bounce will trigger entry. Upside reversal is at ¥90.22.

4/29 Forex Method

I'm changing my analysis method for forex. As I've discussed in earlier postings, I'm getting fairly horrible results with the parabolic sar as an indicator. One reason for this is that the psar is designed for strongly trending instruments. Most forex pairs are weakly trending.

The new method uses Persons' Proprietary Signal, a black box that gives bull and bear signals, developed by John Person.

4/29 Morningline: Holdings

My holdings, PALM excepted, are trading with their existing ranges without new signals.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
BBY $47.22 bull
CIEN$18.28 bull
GE> $19.15 bull
JNK $40.03
MCO $25.12 bull
NLY $17.16 div
PALM $5.79 bull
QQQQ $49.96 bull

At 10:47 a.m. Eastern

PALM Watch

So, a bit of PALMistry: Assume you bought shares long in Palm Inc. before the the price collapsed in February. Today, do you sell or hold?

The stock is trading today at a 6¢ premium over the $5.70 buyout price that PALM and HPQ announced yesterday.

At this point, technical analysis counts for nothing, obviously, and rumors and news are everything.

4/29 Morningline: Other Indicators

All of the other indicators I follow are trading within the ranges set  the past few days.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
JNK $39.97
GLD $114.39
USO $40.95
EEM $42.20
EUR/USD $1.3184
USD/JPY ¥93.92

At 10:08 a.m. Eastern

Oil (USO) has gapped up to the upper end of Monday's range, and is showing a bull flag on Person's Proprietary Index.

4/29 Morningline: Stocks, Bonds & Fear

Tom Sosnoff, the guy who heads ThinkOrSwim -- absolutely the best options trading platform in the known universe -- said yesterday something along the lines of, You can't ignore a 25% rise in the VIX.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $120.40
VIX 19.62
TLT $90.60

At 9:57 a.m. Eastern

Tom is one of the smartest people I've ever encountered when it comes to practical options trading. When he speaks, I listen hard. Sometimes, though, I disagree.

PALM Watch

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is buying out PALM for $5.70 per share. Not enough premium for me to make a profit on my shares.

My previous PALM posting.

I initially acquired PALM as part of a covered call. The shares suddenly dropped by half on a headline surprise: negative guidance from the company.

4/29 Almanac

On Thursday, April 29: Jobless claims.

There are 23 days before the last trading day for May options, 51 the June and 79 the July.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, rules, my holdings and a good book...

4/28 Watchlist: Forex

No new forex signals in today's scan. Three trades closed: A wash and two successes. Also, thought son the euro.

4/28 Watchlist: Stocks

No new additions to the list from today's scan. It's generally a catch-your-breath sort of day, not uncommon after a sharp move like Tuesday's.

4/28 Signals

No signals in today's scan met my criteria.

By my method, I reject out-of-hand any signal on a stock that will be reporting earnings in the next six weeks. There's too great a chance for an analyst surprise.

CIEN Watch

Ciena Corp. (CIEN), along with the rest of the market, took a hit yesterday from the Greek debt downgrade, but it has recovered nicely and after the open made a foray above yesterday's high, before retreating to the upper end of the range.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
CIEN $17.91

CIEN is in bull phase on the parabolic sar and on Person's Proprietary Signal. The broader trend is up, so this is a trend following configuration.

FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) is again testing the lower trendline, breaking below a bit before retreating into the symmetrical triangle that it has been tracing since April 12.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $1.23

Although the parabolic sar remains in bull phase, Person's Proprietary Signal turned bearish yesterday. The macd has retreated below the zero line, into bear territory, and the stochastic has moved from oversold into neutrality, a bearish sign.

4/28 Forex

No new signals on the 16 currency pairs I follow. (Amazing, given yesterday's Greek debt downgrade.)

4/28 Morningline: Holdings

The Greek debt mini-panic creates several quandaries for my holdings. Nearly all declined yesterday, some took on bear signals, and today they've partially, albeit weakly, recovered.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
BBY $46.55 bull
CIEN$17.94 bull
GE $18.79 bull
JNK $39.83
MCO $25.40 bull
NLY $16.94 div
PALM $4.66 bull
QQQQ $49.22 bull

At 10:19 a.m. Eastern

So, the question is the same as I posed earlier today: Is a signal inspired by news valid? When I scan for new trades, I treat such signals as invalid, because the news was priced into the stock either prior to or upon the announcement.

How should that work with existing holdings?

4/28 Morningline: Other Indicators

The euro partially recovered against the dollar (EUR/USD) this morning, but without a lot of conviction.

The dollar strengthened against the yen (USD/JPY), moving back to where it began yesterday.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
JNK $39.83
GLD $113.72
USO $39.50
EEM $41.72
EUR/USD $1.3184
USD/JPY ¥93.92

At 10:04 a.m. Eastern

By all key measures, the markets are having second thoughts about yesterday's mini-panic. Calmer heads have prevailed. The lifeboats are being brought back aboard. A downgrade of Greek debt is, after all, not the end of the Worlds as We Know It.

4/28 Morningline: Stocks, Bonds, Indebted Greeks

It somehow seems unjust for the American markets to be roiled to such an extent by the Greek debt crisis. We're not even part of the euro-zone.

Having said that, the roiling was nowhere near as great as the news reports would have it. Tuesday's close, $18.48, was 1¢ above the close on Monday of last week, April 19. This is not a plunge into the depths. It's not a 1987 replay.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $119.12
VIX 18.84
TLT $91.01

At 9:48 a.m. Eastern

And indeed, blue chip stocks (SPY) opened this morning half a percentage point above Tuesday's close. In other words, SPY reclaimed nearly 19% of yesterday's losses. At the open, at least. We'll see what the day brings.

4/28 Almanac

On Wednesday, April 28: FOMC Statement

There are 24 days before the last trading day for May options, 52 the June and 80 the July.

On the jump, market stats, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...

4/27 Watchlist: Forex Method

Here's a counterfactual look at the current Forex Watchlist as it would be notated using this method: Exit upon the first substantially successful day after entry ("first gain"), or exit after three days whatever the outcome ("3 days"). ("Gain" in this point means profit, not "price increase".)

4/27 Watchlist: Forex

The problem with forex is that most of the pairs are weakly trending, so they're prone to whipsaws. So most trades based on signals end up as losers by the time a countervailing signal is given.

It calls for a better exiting strategy. Must ponder.

One method would be to exit upon any successful day, or to exit after three days whatever the outcome. I'll note the status of both of those in a second posting, called 4/27 Watchlist: Forex Method.

4/27 Watchlist: Stocks

This is shaping up to be one of those big bad days, when stocks move contrary to their signals.

My scan of stocks with intra-day volume of 100,000 or more at around noon Eastern, showed lots of counter-trend signals, and all signals were bearish.

So, gritting our teeth, let's survey the damage.

Other Signals

Here are signals found in my scan that don't meet my criteria for directional trading.

CIEN Watch

Ciena Corp. (CIEN) so far has declined 4% high to low in intra-day trading.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
CIEN $17.73

The decline puts the price at the lower end of last Friday's rise, which broke a short-lived downtrend.

FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) moved down to touch the lower trendline, a mirror image of yesterday's move to the upper trend, as the price continues to trace a symmetrical triangle pattern.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $$1.21

The chart is flashing bear mode on Person's Proprietary Signal, a "black box" indicator developed by John Person. It will often give ghost signals, appearing and disappearing during the day, and Person has cautioned that only the signal at the close should be considered valid.

GLD Watch

The exchange-traded fund that tracks gold, GLD, has moved into bull phase on the parabolic sar, confirmed by Person's Proprietary Signal and a rising macd and stochastic.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
GLD $113.48

The average directional index for GLD is a low 17, which disallows it as a trade by my rules. I trade with the trend, and GLD, it can be said, has been going nowhere for some months.

4/27 Forex

No new signals on the 16 currency pairs that I follow. Bummer!

For the record, the pairs are:

AUD/CAD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, AUD/USD, CHF/JPY, EUR/CAD, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY.

4/27 Morningline: Holdings

My holdings. The macd and sto show weakening on my BBY bull position.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
BBY $48.01 bull
CIEN$18.15 bull
GE> $19.47 bull
JNK $40.18 div
MCO $25.28 bull
NLY $16.89 div
PALM $4.88 bull
QQQQ $50.35 bull

At 10:51 a.m. Eastern

4/27 Morningline: Other Indicators

In other indicators, declines in emerging markets, oil, the euro-dollar currency pair, and the dollar-yen pair. Gold, oil and emerging markets are showing mixed technical signals: bearish on the psar, bullish on the pps.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
JNK $40.16
GLD $112.88
USO $40.12
EEM $42.52
EUR/USD $1.3317
USD/JPY ¥93.57

At 10:33 a.m. Eastern

4/27 Morningline: Stocks and Bonds

The VIX, which measures volatility of the S&P 500, gapped up by 3.8% at the open and is showing a bull flag on Person's Proprietary Signal.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $120.75
VIX 18.25
TLT $90.86

At 9:55 a.m. Eastern
A rising VIX, also called the "fear index", often portends a decline in blue chip stocks, as measured by the SPY exchange-traded fund, which was trading down at levels seen last week.

FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) just touched the upper trendline today before retreating back to the middle of a developing symmetrical triangle.

The high was $1.32, on the descending trendline, and the close was $1.25, within the range of trading for eight of the past nine trading days.

If the triangle develops by the book, then at the apex FNM will break out with a 26¢ increase. The apex is around $1.27, give or take a penny.

4/27 Almanac

On Tuesday, April 27: Consumer confidence.

There are 25 days before the last trading day for May options, 53 the June and 81 the July.

On the jump, market stats, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...

Closed AOD shares position

I've closed my AOD dividend position.

The parabolic sar moved into bear mode today on a 1.6% decline intra-day. The signal has been extremely whippy, with three days bearish, three days bullish, and now another baer signal with price confirmation.

So, outta there.

Closed EEM bear put spread

I've closed my bear put spread position in EEM. Although the parabolic sar remains in bear phase, another indicator, Person's Proprietary Signal, turned bullish late Friday.

The macd, although still in bear territory, is moving up toward the zero line. And the stochastic, in neutral territory, is in a bull configuration as it moves up toward oversold.

The spread, which was to expire May 21, was structured as long the $44-strike put, and short the $43-strike put.

4/26 Watchlist: Forex

No fresh signals today. Nothing added or removed.

4/26 Watchlist: Stocks

CIEN added to the bull list. Two failures, a success and a wash.

Opened CIEN bull call spread

I've opened a bull call spread position on CIEN. The options trade for the last time on May 21.

CIEN showed a parabolic sar bull signal today, in line with a long-running trend. I  analyzed the stock earlier today.

The spread is structured as long the $18-strike call, and short the $19-strike call.I entered the position for a 43¢ premium debit.

Other Signals

Here are parabolic sar signals on stocks whose trends are too weak, under my rules, for directional trading.

They might be of interest for people looking for sideways trades or who take a less restrictive view of trend trading.

CIEN Watch

Ciena Corp. (CIEN) moved into bull phase this morning on the parabolic sar. The signal is buttressed by Person's Proprietary Signal, and strengthening to the bull side of the macd and stochastic.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
CIEN $18.30

The signal is with an uptrend that began in December, nearer term, and in February 2009, longer term.

FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) remains in bull phase on the major signallers, but the macd and stochastic continue to deteriorate.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $1.24

The stock is trading within Friday's range and has declined by 1.6% in intra-day trading.

Boycott Arizona? Possible Targets

Arizona's new law aimed at migrants unlawfully in the United States requires police to ask people for documentary proof that they're either citizens or properly admitted residents.

As a friend, an American of Korean ancestry, put it, "I will be required to carry my naturalization papers the next time I go 'Home' to visit."

4/26 Morningline

Blue chip stocks (SPY) are trading at the top of Friday's range after setting a higher high of $121.91. A move below $120.63 would set a lower low.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $122.00
VIX 17.33
TLT $90.56

At 9:37 a.m. Eastern

Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) gapped up this morning and are trading 0.7% above Friday's close. A trade above $91.09 would set a higher high, below $89.87 a lower low.

May Covered Calls

Slim pickin's for covered calls that expire in May. In fact, I only found two candidates that meet my stringent criteria, and they're iffy becomes earnings will be announced before the options expire.

The May options trade for the last time on May 21. That's 25 days away on Monday.

4/26 Almanac

On Monday, April 26: No econ reports. Note to self: Sleep in!

There are 26 days before the last trading day for May options, 54 the June and 82 the July.

On the jump, market stats, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...

4/23 Watchlist: Forex

Added GBP/JPY and USD/JPY to the bull column. Two bear signal failures.

4/23 Watchlist: Stocks

One addition, PCAR. And a success, F, which is dropped from the Watchlist as earnings loom.

COH Watch

Coach Inc. (COH) pushed to a new high on the three-month daily chart today, before falling back into the range it has maintained for the past seven days.

This is a second day of a parabolic sar bull signal, and the macd and stochastic are weakening toward bearishness.

4/23 Rejected

There was a real paucity of signals in my scan today, a dearth, even.

And that's with the scan expanded to include stocks and exchange-traded funds with a 500,000 share volume and a price of $5 and up.

I think it's pretty much as I said it in the Morningline: It's Friday. It's spring. People don't want to be at their trading terminals.

PCAR Watch

The truck-maker PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) shows a parabolic sar bull signal today after a three-day whipsaw to the bear side.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
PCAR $47.77

The bull signal is in line with an uptrend that began in early February, and an average directional index of 51 means the trend is strong.

4/23 Forex

Parabolic sar bull signals showed on the forex charts as the yen weakened against the U.S. dollar (USD/JPY) and British pound (GBP/JPY). So did the Swiss franc against the dollar (USD/CHF).

All three of these currency pairs have low average direction indexes, and so are prone to whipsaws.

PALM Watch

I was amused to read that Jim Cramer a few days ago said he was bearish on PALM. A courageous call, Jim. At 59% below the high on the three-month daily chart. I guess some bearishness is in order.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
PALM $5.06

For a chart-driven trader, PALM is one of those interesting cases where rumor and news are all.

FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) continues to trace a sideways pattern within the confines of a developing symettrical triangle, with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level acting as a somewhat porous floor for its pacing.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $1.26

Earnings are due to be released after the end of trading on May 6, less than two weeks away. FNM's last earnings announcement caused barely a blip on the chart.

4/23 Morningline: Holdings

My special situation holding PALM is rising again this morning on chitchat about a possible buyout. The Chinese technology company Lenovo (LNVGY) is said to be the remaining Asian buyer for the troubled U.S. smartphone company.

I own PALM as the remnant of a covered call gone bad. A buyout at a premium is my one chance to recoup some of the loss. Happily, the position is in shares, not options, so I can afford to be patient.

4/23 Morningline: Other Indicators

The dollar-yen currency pair (USD/JPY) is switched into bull phase on the parabolic sar, a day after Person's Proprietary Signal flipped into the bull column.

The signal was accompanied by a rise that so far has traversed 1.1% low to high.

4/23 Morningline: Stocks and Bonds

Blue chip stocks (SPY): Flat, at the top of yesterday's range. Treasury long-term bonds (TLT): Down, below yesterday's range. Fear (VIX): Declining for the second straight day.

Greeks: Still indebted. Economy: Still recovering, without conviction. Coffee: Dark and bitter.

Meaning: None. It's a morning of unmotivated slackers looking ahead to a fine spring weekend away from the trading terminal. Just another morning in Paradise.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $121.49
VIX 16.13
TLT $90.02

At 10:14 a.m. Eastern

SPY is showing a parabolic sar bull signal this morning, a companion to the Person's Proprietary Signal bull flag of three days earlier. The signal is in the direction of the larger trend and ended a five day bear whipsaw.

But with the average directional index low and getting lower, the trend is weak, and I lack confidence in any directional signal.

4/23 Almanac

On Friday, April 23: Durable goods, new homes.

There are 29 days before the May options expire, 57 the June and 85 the July.

On the jump, market stats, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...

FNM Watch: Volatility

Fannie Mae (FNM) added some volatility to its chart today, traversing 5.9% intraday low to high, a move that straddled the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

The price pattern remains consistent with a symmetrical triangle.

4/22 Watchlist: Forex

I've added USD/CHF to the bull list and EUR/USD to the bear. One signal, USD/JPY in the bear list, was exited as a wash.

4/22 Watchlist: Stocks

Two additions to the Watchlist today: COH and XRT in the bull list.

I had one wash, GE, and a failure, UNG. One of the stocks of interest has been dropped, COST, having outlived its reason for being on the Watchlist.

4/22 Rejected

Rejects? We got rejects!

Here's who didn't make the grade for the Watchlist, and why not.

XRT Watch

The exchange-traded fund that tracks the retail sector, XRT, has switched to bull phase on the parabolic sar, after three days in bear phase. The bull signal is aligned with a trend stretching back to early February.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
XRT $44.18

COH Watch

The clothing accessories maker Coach Inc. (COH) is showing a bull flag on the parabolic sar after a three-day whipsaw into bearishness. The bull phase is in line with an upward trend that has been in force since early February.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
COH $42.76

The signal hasn't been accessorized by any price increase as of yet. The average directional index is 40, so it is a trending stock.

Thinking about my GE bull position

My bull call options spread on General Electric Co. (GE) is in danger of being on the wrong side of the chart.

GE is showing a parabolic sar bear signal today, buttressed by a bear flag from Person's Proprietary Signal, a declining macd below the zero line, and a stochastic plunging through the neutral zone toward oversold territory.

4/22 Forex

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro and the Swiss franc, tossing off a parabolic sar bear signal in the case of the EUR/USD currency pair, and a bull signal in the USD/CHF pair.

Both pairs have very low average directional index readings, and so are prone to whipsaws. The EUR/USD three-month daily chart shows six psar reversals, and the USD/CHF chart, eight such.

CIEN Watch

Ciena Corp. (CIEN) continues its counter-trend decline, trading near the bottom of yesterday's range.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
CIEN $17.44

The stock showed a bear signal on the parabolic sar two days ago, paradoxically amid a sharp rise on a stunning volume spike.

FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) continues to weave a path around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $1.21.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $1.20

4/22 Morningline: Holdings

Among my holdings, the parabolic sar on GE has moved into bear phase. This is a clear signal to adjust or close the position, a bull call spread that expires in May.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $9.15 div
BBY $45.89 bull
EEM $42.12 bear
GE $18.86 bull
JNK $39.97 div
MCO $25.73 bull
NLY $17.06 div
PALM $4.77
QQQQ $49.50

At 10:20 a.m. Eastern

4/22 Morningline: Other Indicators

Gold (GLD), oil (USO) and emerging markets (EEM) moved down sharply in early trading, all three remaining within their ranges of the last week.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
JNK $40.01
GLD $110.97
USO $39.44
EEM $42.05
EUR/USD $1.3278
USD/JPY ¥92.92

At 10:04 a.m. Eastern

The euro-dollar (EUR/USD) forex currency pair has fallen 1% high to low so far today; the chart shows a new parabolic sar bear signal. The trading price is near a support level touched twice previously, in late March and early April.

4/22 Morningline: Stocks and Bonds

Blue chip stocks (SPY) opened 0.7% below yesterday's close but remain within a sideways range stretching back more than a week.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $119.28
VIX 18.10
TLT $90.99

At 9:48 a.m. Eastern

The VIX, which measures SPY's volatility, opened 7% above yesterday's close. Person's Proprietary Signal switched into bear phase on SPY in a two-day whipsaw. The macd and stochastic deteriorated sharply.

Opened QQQQ bull call spread

I've opened a bull call spread on QQQQ. The trade was entered during regular market house but cleared in after-hours trading.

The vertical options spread, which trades for the last time on May 2, is set up as long the $49 calls and short the $51 calls.

4/22 Almanac

On Thursday, April 22: Producer prices, existing homes, jobless claims, natural gas. AP gets poetic.

There are 30 days before the May options expire, 58 the June and 86 the July.

On the jump, market stats, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...

4/21 Watchlist: Forex

Three additions: EUR/CAD to the bear list GBP/CHF to the bull.

4/21 Watchlist: Stocks

Four additions to the Watchlist today: KBE, QQQQ, WSM and XLY. No one voted off the island.

Apple Employees?

I was looking at the Apple -- AAPL -- chart today, with a nice price rise on earnings and a parabolic sar bull signal, and I was thinking, "What a great day for all  the applets who work there."

4/21 Rejected

A change in method with today's scan. I looked at everything with a volume of 1 million shares or higher (at the time of the scan).

I rejected out of hand -- didn't even look at -- stocks that had earnings coming soon. This speeds up the scan, a good thing, and allows broader coverage, also good.

4/21 Forex

Two parabolic sar bear signals on euro currency pairs, and a bull signal on the cable-Swiss franc.

XLY Watch

The exchange-traded fund that tracks the consumer discretionary spending sector, XLY, is showing a bull signal on the parabolic sar. It has been in bear phase for the past two trading days.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
XLY $34.83

The bull signal is with a strong uptrend that began in mid-February and has produced a high average directional index of 45.

WSM Watch

Williams-Sonoma (WSM), the home products retailer, has swung back into bull phase on the parabolic sar after a two break in bear phase.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
WSM $30.61

The bull phase is with the trend.

KBE Watch

The KBW Bank Index etf, KBE, is showing a bull signal on the parabolic sar after a three-day bear-phase.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
KBE $28.64

The signal is in line with an uptrend that began Feb. 5.

QQQQ Watch

The exchange-traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq, QQQQ, is again showing a parabolic sar bull signal after a two-day sojourn into beardom.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
QQQQ $49.83

The Qs is one of the most attractive issues for options traders because of its liquidity.

CIEN Watch

Ciena Corp. (CIEN) is one of those fine cases where, like the cannon at Waterloo, the signal proceeds the news.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
CIEN $17.66

Yesterday CIEN showed a new bear signal on the parabolic sar, but the price showed a healthy rise on a large volume spike. Today, prices are dropping back on mixed analyst comment: One says buy on a pullback, one says sell, another raises the target price to $24.

You pay your money, you take your choice.

FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) continues to trade a few cents above the Fibonacci 50% retracement level, at $1.21.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $1.24

So far this week Fannie has been all motion and no progress.

4/21 Morningline: Holdings

Dividend play AOD has moved into bull phase again on the parabolic sar, after three days in bear phase.

AOD goes ex-div on April 23, which should cause a 12¢ price decline. So any rise today and tomorrow will provide a welcome offset.

4/21 Morningline: Other Indicators

The minerals, gold (GLD) and oil (USO), are stairstepping up for a third day but remain below the resistance levels set last weeks.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
JNK $40.14
GLD $111.87
USO $40.56
EEM $42.62
EUR/USD $1.3399
USD/JPY ¥93.10

At 10:13 a.m. Eastern

The signals have both in bear phase.

4/21 Morningline: Stocks and Bonds

Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) are trading 0.4% above yestreday's close, breaking out of the range that had contained the price since March 25.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $121.15
VIX 15.59
TLT $89.82

At 9:57 a.m. Eastern

The resistance level at $89.99 was tested four times in five days before today's breakout.

Blue chip stocks (SPY) are trading narrowly near yesterday's close and within the range of the last six trading days. The $121 to $121.19 level  has been tested five times in those six days, without a breakout.

4/21 Almanac

On Wednesday, April 21: Oil inventories.

There are 31 days before the May options expire, 59 the June and 87 the July.

On the jump, market stats, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...

4/20 Watchlist: Forex

A new bear signal, EUR/GBP, added to the list.

The EUR/CAD bull signal declines with a bear phase shift from Person's Proprietary Signal, and is booted off the island.

It's the last of forex bull signals. A sad occasion. Like when the dodo went extinct.

4/20 Watchlist: Stocks

Here's the stocks Watchlist for today. I added CIEN as a bear signal. No one kicked off the island, although I almost gave COST the boot.

4/20 Rejected

Here are the signals that didn't make the cut for the Watchlist, and why.

• NOK, bull, earnings near (4/22), marginal adx (22)
• Q, bear, counter-trend, earnings near (5/5)
• RIG, bull, moved on news of the issue's debut on the Swiss Bourse, low adx (12)
• STT, bear, signal and price move on the earnings announcement.

4/20 Forex: EUR/GBP

One new forex signal today: The parabolic sar has moved into bear phase on the EUR/GBP currency pair, buttressed by a price decline that has covered -0.7% so far today.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
EUR/GBP £0.8761

The average directional index stands at 26, which is marginally whipsaw prone, but still its better than the extremely low adx readings of most forex.

FNM Watch

The mortgage company Fannie Mae (FNM) has moved back above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, at $1.21, and is trading without much conviction in a range that has covered -1.6% high to low so far today.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $1.23

Volume on FNM -- a high flier fallen to penny stock status -- has declined for four straight trading days. Earnings will be announced on May 6.

CIEN Watch

Communications technology company Ciena Corp. (CIEN) is showing a bear-phase parabolic sar on the fourth day of a sharp decline.

Person's Proprietary Signal switched into bear phase yesterday.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
CIEN $17.06

I find the signal to be interesting because of what it says about judging trends.

4/20 Morningline: Holdings

Among my holdings,

• Dividend play NLY and zombie shares MCO have stopped falling for the moment. 
• Takeover candidate PALM is in the third day of a sharp decline.
• May options bear position EEM ticked up at the open, counter to my strategy.
• May options bull position GE is up again after a brief walk to the downside.

4/20 Morningline: Indicators

High-yield corporate debt (JNK) rose sharply today and is trading 3.5% above yesterday's close.

This is earnings season, JNK mainly measures trader confidence that companies will be good for their debts, and the quarter's results are obviously keeping that confidence high.

JNK has switched to bull phase on the Person's Proprietary Signal, a one-day whipsaw from a bear phase signal. The price line for JNK has been mainly sideways since the beginning of March.

4/20 Morningline: Stocks and Bonds

On your chart for SPY, the exchange traded fund that tracks the S&P 500, draw a horizontal line at $119, and another at $121.30. Between those lines, only about 2% apart, you will have bound nearly all the price movement of blue-chip stocks for seven trading days.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $120.50
VIX 16.48
TLT $89.82

At 9:57 a.m. Eastern

The Treasury long-term bonds, TLT, the other fundamental leg of the markets, has also been tightly bound, within a range of about 1.2%, during the last seven trading days.

Both SPY and TLT this morning are trading narrowly at the top of those ranges.

4/20 Almanac

On Tuesday, April 20: Minor retail sales reports.

There are 32 days before the May options expire, 60 the June and 88 the July.

On the jump, market stats, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...

4/19 Watchlist: Forex

Four currency pairs with bear signals added: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY.

I'm running out of bull signals for the Watchlist.

4/19 Watchlist: Stocks

Two bullish successes on the Watchlist: BBY and XRT. Life is good.

GE turns sketchy after earnings are announced, but I'm keeping the signal open.

4/19 Rejected

A list of signals that didn't make the grade.

I found a lot of signals today that are counter the prevailing trend, which is  generally a deal killer for me. However, there are some ambiguities ...

4/19 Forex: AUD and JPY

In forex, parabolic sar bear signals from the Australian dollar against the U.S. (AUD/USD) and New Zealand (AUD/NZD) dollars, and from the Japanese yen against the euro (EUR/JPY) and the Swiss franc (CHF/JPY).

All four pairs have low average directional index readings, suggesting whipsaws are likely (as is the case with almost all the major forex pairs.

UNG Watch

The natural gas exchange-traded fund (UNG) has switched to bear phase on the parabolic sar.

By direction, the signal is consistent with a downtrend that has run since July 2008. It's a strong trend, with an average directional index of 17.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
UNG $7.04

FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) continues to use the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($1.21) as a reversal point. The binary flags remain in bull phase, but the macd and stochastic are deteriorating.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $1.23

4/19 Morningline: Holdings

My May bear play, EEM, continues to fall nicely. It just warms an old trader's heart to see a stock heading south.

The bull plays for May are less heart-warming. The psar on BBY remains bullish, but the macd and stochastic are weakening, as is the (ahem) price. The same with GE. There are more than 30 days to go until expiration, so I'll continue to hold these positions.

PALM, a former zombie stock left over from a failed covered call, has now become a special situation play, with all the take-over talk. The pps is flashing bear today on my shares, but the psar remains in bull phase. The macd and stochastic are weakening.

4/19 Morningline: Indicators

High-yield corporate debt (JNK) -- a measure of confidence that companies can pay back their borrowings -- remains in bull phase on the parabolic sar, although it briefly in morning trading showed a bear signal on Person's Proprietary Signal.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
JNK $36.95
GLD $111.32
USO $39.94
EEM $42.35
EUR/USD $1.3469
USD/JPY ¥92.24

At 10:22 a.m. Eastern

JNK is trading at a level it saw on April 13 and in late March.

The minerals are down, both gold (GLD) and oil (USO), with psar bear phase markers to nail home the point.

5/19 Morningline: Stocks and Bonds

The parabolic sar this morning is in bear phase on the blue chip stocks (SPY), with the price trading at the bottom of Friday's range. The so-called fear index (VIX), a measure of SPY's volatility, is trading in the high end of Friday's range.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $119.52
VIX 18.15
TLT $89.87

At 10:00 a.m. Eastern

The Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) remain in bull mode but with little price action. TLT is trading at the top of Friday's range, at a level it saw on April 13 and March 24.

The last time SPY switched into bear phase, on March 19, it only remained there for two days before flipping back into the bull column. The technical negatives, however, are greater this time.

4/19 Almanac

On Monday, April 19: Leading indicators

There are 33 days before the May options expire, 61 the June and 89 the July.

On the jump, market stats, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...