Friday, November 27, 2009

11/27 Watchlist

GLD has gapped down and is trading a bit below 114. I entered this trade using the bb/mfi analysis, which again shows bearish. This position is a December bear call spread -- long the 111 strike and short the 110 strike. About a third of the position was hedged with 3 December 118 long calls after the price gapped upward on Wednesday and I was unable to get a fill on an order with the low volume.

Liquidity will be even worse today, the Friday after Thanksgiving, with a shortened trading day. The stock markets close at 1 p.m. EST (10 a.m. PST). My possibilities at this point are to buy back the 118 calls sold as insurance, for a loss of about $1 a share, sell the hedge and the spread for a net loss of about $4.50 a share, or hang tight and do nothing until full trading resumes on Monday.

UNG remains in profitable territory. The position, a covered call, remains in bull mode by the pps/mfi analysis.

Indicators (pps/mfi analysis):
  • Bull mode: SPY (blue chips) wih a gap down in price, TLT (Treasury long bonds) bull mode with a gap up in price, GLD (gold) bull mode with a gap down in price, EUR/USD (Dollars per Euros) unconfirmed by the mfi, USD/JPY (Yen per Dollar) confirmed by an mfi reversal within oversold territory.
  • Bear mode: VIX (fear index) bear mode (bullish for stocks) with a gap up in price.

Many anomalies.

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