Monday, November 16, 2009

11/16 Watchlist

Holdings: GE on track with a nice price rise; RF also remains in bear mode but the price is stalled.

Reminds me of the old Peter, Paul and Mary Song: "Where have all my options gone...." I'm seeing very few signals, buy or sell, which in the past has indicated a looming trend change. No guarantees, of course.

Currency strangeness: The EUR/USD is in bear mode on the pps, bull mode on the rsi, with prices up to last Thursday's levels. No reversal signal yet. The USD/JPY shows bull mode on the pps, bear mode on the rsi and a price drop to levels not seen for a month.

This shows the great truth that all momentum indicators have moments of madness. are trailing indicators. DIA is an extreme example. The etf received a bear signal on the pps (unconfirmed by the mfi) on 10/22, when the price closed at 100.74. It dropped to a close of 97.06 on 10/30, then started climbing, and today reached 104.58 (as of 70 minutes before closed) with no bull signal in sight. We have to go back to 3/11, at 69.48 to get a bull signal (or any signal) confirmed by the mfi, and that would have carried us up to a confirmed bear on 8/11, at 92.58 (if we count exit or reversal signals using the same rules we use for entry). Since then, we would have been out of DIA according to the rules.

SPY, TLT, VIX, GLD: Same modes as this morning.

No new high-volume etf signals.

No new signsl in high-volume shares of companies.

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