Official Problem Child GLD has opened within the range of Monday's trading (a down candlestick despite the gap up) and is at present trading below the open. The mfi continues to move toward an exit from overbought territory, and the price is below the upper band. So, I continue to hold the position, a bear call spread long the December 111 options, and short the December 110 options.
Our other holding, UNG, has declined to 8.92 after yesterday's flirt with the 9.25 level. It remains in pps/mfi bull mode and, as hedged with the December 9 call, is profitable.
Indicators, using the pps/mfi(rsi) analysis:
Bear mode: SPY (blue chips), TLT (Treasury long bonds), EUR/USD (Euros per dollar)
Bull mode: GLD (golds), VIX (fear index, bearish for stocks), USD/JPY (Yen per dollar)
Bull mode, I should mention, doesn't mean that I can rush out the buy the shares. They've been in these modes for awhile, and my rule is to by when the signals are given, not long after.
I'm also interested by the price divergence in the USD/JPY currency pair: The pps/mfi signal has been bullish since Nov. 12, but the price has declined consistently since then.
Lots of economic reports today, with GDP as the big guy (2.8% decline).
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