Fresh stats about the
employment situation will be poublished Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, with a private payroll company giving a sneak preview with the
ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.
It is a very busy and significant week in economic reporting, beginning with
personal income and outlays on Monday at 8:30 a.m., the
Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index on Tuesday at 10 a.m. and
international trade on Friday at 8:30 a.m.
But the biggest market mover of the week may well be the
Federal Open Market Committee announcement on Wednesday at 2 p.m., culminating a two-day session.
The conventional wisdom has been that the Fed will wait until after the elections to raise interest rates. But funnier things have happened, such as the head of the FBI issuing potentially election-altering insinuations about a presidential candidate less than two weeks before people vote on Nov. 8. Me, I'm placing no bets on interest rates either way.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The
interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The
M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The
average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the
employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.
Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the
factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.
Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the
ISM manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Tuesday
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.
Book of Value: The Fine Art of Investing Wisely
by Anurag Sharma
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