Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
Events arranged by day:
Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the Treasury budget at 2 p.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.46%, up 0.15% from a week earlier.
- 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
- 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
- 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
- 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee make public appearances during the week, both on Monday at 1 p.m. in Washington, D.C.
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will address the National Association for Business Economics conference on economic policy. His topic: Reflections on Macroeconomics Then and Now.
Fed Gov. Lael Brainard speaks to the Institute of International Bankers annual Washington conference on the subject, Economic Outlook, Liquidity and Resilience.
This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 501 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 6, 2016
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.License
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