Sunday, March 20, 2016

The Week Ahead: GDP, durables, homes and a holiday

The third and final estimate of 4th quarter gross domestic product will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. The release comes in the week after the Federal Open Market Committee slowed its plan to raise interest rates, citing economic troubles abroad.

The GDP will be published on a day when the markets are closed, one of those strange and old-fashioned disconnects between the needs of finance and the persistence of custom. Friday is Wall Street's Easter holiday, the Friday before the Christian religious observance. Banks are open; markets are closed.

Durable goods orders, a measure of confidence, will be out on Thursday at 8:30 a.m., and new real estate reports are on the calendar: Existing home sales on Monday at 10 a.m. and new home sales on Wednesday at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Existing home sales at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: PMI manufacturing index flash report at 9:45 a.m.

Wednesday:  New homes sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.,

Thursday:  Durable goods orders and jobless claims, each at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Gross domestic product 4th quarter 3rd estimate at 8:30 a.m. Markets are closed all day.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.59%, up 0.08% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • None.
  • None.

One Federal Open Market Committee member has scheduled appearances during the week, St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Monday and Thursday

Two alternates will speak, Chicago Fed. Pres. Charles Evans and Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker on Tuesday,

And two of the Fed glitterati who has no position on the FOMC this year will take to the podium: Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker and Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart, both on Monday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 497 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 20, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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