Sunday, March 27, 2016

The Week Ahead: Jobs, trade, income, outlays, manufacturing, Yellen

Jobs again take the center of the economic stage with the employment situation report, out Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. A private-sector sneak preview, the ADP employment report issued by a leading payroll company, will be out  Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Other potential market movers: International trade and personal income and outlays, each at 8:30 a.m. on Monday, and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index published Friday at 10 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen addresses the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday at 12:20 p.m. Her subject: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.

Factory orders, which normally are published the same week as the employment report, will be released on Monday, April 4.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: International trade and personal income and outlays, each at 10 a.m., pending home sales at 10 a.m. and the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing survey of conditions in Texas at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday: The S&P Case-Shiller home price index of real-estate prices in 20 metropolitan areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.,

Thursday:  Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago purchasing managers index at 9:45 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, employment at 8:30 a.m., the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., and the ISM manufacturing index, consumer sentiment and construction spending, all at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.54%, down 0.05% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 2-year: Auction Monday 1 p.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 5-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 7-year Wednesday 1 p.m., settlement Thursday.
  • None.
  • 10-year: Settlement Thursday.

In addition to Yellen, speaking on Tuesday, two other members of the Federal Open Market Committee take to the podium: New York Fed Pres. William Dudley on Thursday and Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester on Friday.

Two FOMC alternates have scheduled appearances: Dallas Fed Pres. Rob Kaplan twice on Tuesday and Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Wednesday and Thursday

And one other from among the Fed glitterati, San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, speaks on Tuesday. He has no role this year on the FOMC.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 492 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 27, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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