Sunday, February 7, 2016

The Week Ahead: Retail, Yellen

Retail sales statistics headline the week. The report will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Fed Gov. Janet Yellen delivers her semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, on Wednesday with testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services, and on Thursday before the Senate Committee on Banking and Urban Affairs, each time beginning at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Wednesday Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Retail sales and import and export prices at 8:30 a.m., and business inventories and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.16%, down 0.13% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 11 a.m.

In addition to Fed Pres. Janet Yellen on Wednesday and Thursday, two others from among the Fed glitterati take to the podium: Dallas Fed Pres. Rob Kapan, a Federal Open Market Committee alternate, on Friday, and San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, who has no position on the FOMC this year, on Wednesday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 494 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 7, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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