Sunday, February 28, 2016

The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, trade

The labor market will come under the markets' analytical and emotional microscopes on Friday with the release of the employment situation report at 8:30 a.m. New York time. A major payroll company's sneak preview, the ADP employment report, will be out on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Two other major studies will punctuate the week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Tuesday at 10 a.m. and international trade on Friday at 8:30m a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment situation report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m., pending home sales at 10 a.m. and the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the ISM manufacturing survey and construction spending, each at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Reserve "Beige Book" at 2 p.m.

Thursday:  Jobless claims and productivity and costs, each at 8:30 a.m., factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing survey, each at 10 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment situation and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.31%, up 0.18% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 2-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 5-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 7-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

  • 30-year: Settlement Monday.


In a week marked by release of the Fed's "Beige Book" on Wednesday at 2 p.m., the Fed glitterati have fallen into a deep silence.

Only one, San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, who has no position on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, has plans to grasp the microphone and speak, on Wednesday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 496 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 28, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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