Sunday, February 21, 2016

The Week Ahead: GDP, income/outlays, home sales, durables

The government takes a second swing at the 4th quarter gross domestic product on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, and simultaneously publishes another important "How are we doing" report, personal income and outlays.

Also out, existing home sales on Tuesday and new home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m., and durable goods orders on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Index of consumer expectations from the Univeristy of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: PMI manufacturing index flash release at 9:45 a.m.

Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence and existing home sales, each at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: New home sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Durable goods orders and jobless claims, each at 8:30 a.m.,  and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: GDP and personal income and outlays, each at 8:30 a.m., and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.13%, up 0.01% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
  • 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • None.
  • None.

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks on the subject Developments in Monetary Policy at CERAWeek 2016 in Houston, Texas on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Two governors address the 2016 U.S. Monetary Policy in New York City on Friday, Fed Gov. Jerome Powell will speak on Language after Liftoff: Fed Communications Away form the Zero Lower Bound at 10:15 a.m., and Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, on International Monetary Policy Synchronization at 1:30 p.m.

One other FOMC member is scheduled to make a public appearance: St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Wednesday.

One FOMC alternate is on the calendar: Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Wednesday.

The others from among the Fed glitterati will speak: Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker on Wednesday and Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, both on Thursday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 496 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 21, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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