Saturday, June 6, 2015

The Week Ahead: Retailers, producer prices

Retail sales and producer prices lead economic reporting in a week marked by a distinct scarcity of major market movers.

The government's retail sales report, the most comprehensive window into the sector will be published on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Producer prices come out on Friday, also at 8:30 a.m. The more closely watched consumer price report will be released on June 18

Also, the calendar on Monday moves to within a month of the next earnings season, prompting a period of rising volatility as analyst reports and trader speculation kick in.

Otherwise, the markets will be relying on the Greece vs. the Eurozone debt kerfuffle and the morass of speculation about the intentions of money policy makers at the June 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Even with a paucity of reports, the week is likely to hold some excitement for traders.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Items of interest, arranged by day:

Monday: Earnings season begins in a month, on July 8.

Tuesday: Job openings and labor turnover at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claimsretail sales and import and export prices, all at 8:30 a.m.,  business inventories at 10 a.m. and money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Producer prices at 8:30 a.m. and Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.69%.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 5-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 7-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m. 
  • 30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m. 
  • None

The Federal Reserve glitterati have gone underground this week, no doubt engaged in deep meditation on the awesome task at hand at the mid-June money policy meeting.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 481 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 6, 2015


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