Sunday, June 14, 2015

The Week Ahead: Money policy, prices, industry, housing, witches

This week revolves around a major meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, with fresh forecasts from its members and a news conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The show kicks off on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time with the money policy statement and forecasts, followed by Yellen at 2:30 p.m.

Feeding into the theme set by the Fed is the most followed measure of inflation and deflation, the consumer price index, published on  Thursday at 8:30 a.m. The CPI makes the headlines, but the Fedsters are said to give greater weight to another inflation measure, the deflator contained in the gross domestic product report.

Other potential market movers, although dwarfed by the FOMC event, are industrial production on Monday at 9:15 a.m., housing starts on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey on Thursday at 10 a.m.

Adding fuel  to bubbling cauldron of the week: Friday is a Quadruple Witching Day in the markets, when stock index futures and options, and individual stock futures and stock options all expire simultaneously, an event that happens only four times a year.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Building permits for new private homes, from the housing starts report, at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday.

The leading indicators index is not in itself a leading indicator, but I find it to be a useful "You Are Here" marker for the business cycle. It will be published Thursday at 10 a.m.

Items of interest, arranged by day:

Monday: Empire State manufacturing survey at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m., the Home Builders housing market index at 10 a.m.  and Treasury's international capital at 4 p.m.

Tuesday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m., FOMC announcement and forecasts at 2 p.m.,\ and Fed Chair Yellen's news conference at 2:30 p.m.

Thursday: Consumer prices and jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey and leading indicators at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.69%.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • None.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.

Aside from Fed Chair Yellen and her news conference one other FOMC member takes to the podium during the week: San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams on Friday. Another of the Fed glitterati, Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester, also makes an appearance on Friday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 483 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 14, 2015


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